Three Bold Predictions for MSU's 2026 football season

With less than a week until kickoff, it is time for some cautious optimism about Michigan State football.

Michigan State will begin a new era under the lights Friday night before a home crowd eager to see and feel something different. The opener comes against a Mid-American Conference opponent, so any conclusions should be measured. Still, the sweeping changes since the Spartans last took the field will offer plenty to evaluate.

Given how quickly the Jonathan Smith era began and ended, it is understandable to feel hopeful about a new regime, even if the transition came sooner than expected. The Spartans enter the season with virtually no outside expectations, and that is sometimes when this program thrives.

They also have a coach who will make sure his players know they are being doubted. How they channel that doubt may help determine the course of the season.

Here are three bold predictions for the 2026 season.

1. Cam Edwards will lead the Big Ten in rushing

Despite the praise Cam Edwards has received throughout camp, predicting that he will lead a conference loaded with talented running backs remains a stretch.

But there is a case to be made.

Coach Pat Fitzgerald clearly has high expectations for Edwards. During a media availability this month, Fitzgerald called him the “best back in the country” and said the staff would “put him in bubble wrap till the season opener” after some of the plays he made in practice.

Michigan State may have its deepest offensive line room in years, perhaps since the Mark Dantonio era. The group includes Ben Murawski, a familiar face from UConn who followed Edwards to East Lansing and was named to the Outland Trophy watch list.

Photo Credit: Marvin Hall / Spartans Illustrated

The line has talent and extensive experience across multiple levels of college football. If the unit develops cohesion, it should give Edwards room to make a significant impact.

New offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan also favors a physical running game. In his last full season as Alabama’s play-caller in 2024, the Crimson Tide ranked near the top of the conference in rushing. Sheridan has tailored his offense to his playmakers, and Edwards appears poised to become its workhorse. His role in the passing game could create additional opportunities to accumulate yards and touchdowns.

Michigan State fans remember Kenneth Walker III’s remarkable 2021 season, so they may hesitate to place another transfer running back on that pedestal before he proves himself. If Edwards stays healthy, however, he has a realistic chance to emerge as one of the Big Ten’s top backs. Such a breakthrough would substantially raise the Spartans’ ceiling.

2. MSU will win at least two of its final four regular-season games (@ Michigan, vs. Washington, vs. Oregon and @ Rutgers)

For this prediction to come true, Michigan State must play its best football late in the season, something it failed to do during the Jonathan Smith era.

It also would likely send the Spartans to their first bowl game since the 2022 season.

Health will be pivotal. Injuries struck early in each of the past two seasons, making it difficult for either side of the ball, especially the defense, to establish continuity or rhythm.

Photo Credit: Marvin Hall / Spartans Illustrated

Michigan and Washington have solid rosters, but each faces Michigan State at a potentially tricky point in the season. If the Spartans are prepared, either matchup could offer an upset opportunity.

Washington also has yet to prove it can win consistently east of the Mississippi River.

Oregon is the clear long shot. The Ducks may bring the conference’s best roster to East Lansing.

Rutgers closes the regular season in a matchup that could carry bowl implications. Based on the teams’ current outlooks, it appears close to a toss-up, although much can change before November.

Although Fitzgerald’s first roster features many newcomers, he clearly prioritized experience. Michigan State ranks among the nation’s top 10 in returning snaps, which could become one of its greatest advantages.

That experience should matter late in the season. If the Spartans stay healthy and establish an identity, they could be better equipped to navigate the final month than they were a year ago.

One bold prediction remains, and it focuses on a defense that could determine Michigan State’s ceiling this season.

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