After a strong swing through the state of Indiana, March beckons for Michigan State basketball

I have a bit of a confession to make.

Back in December when I was reviewing the overall Big Ten schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, I noticed the back-to-back games at Purdue and at Indiana at the tail end of the conference campaign. 

The games were spaced just three days apart, and the Spartan have struggled noticeably in both buildings historically. Outside of possibly the west coast trip in January, this two-game stretch looked like the most challenging portion of the entire schedule. I believed that just getting a split in two games would be a success.

The Spartans surprised both me and the college basketball world by rising to the challenge and winning both games. Other Big Ten teams were not as fortunate this weekend as both Purdue and Illinois picked up an additional loss.

Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings following the weekend's action.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standing as of March 2.

Michigan's win over Illinois on Friday night means that the Wolverines are the outright regular season Big Ten Champions and will be the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. 

Michigan State is currently tied with Nebraska for second place at 14-4 with two games remaining for both teams. The Spartans close out the season with Rutgers (+21.5, projected) and at Michigan (-9.5) while Nebraska is at UCLA (+3) and at home versus Iowa (+7.5).

The fact that Illinois lost also moves the Fighting Illini one game behind the Spartans in the standings at 13-5. Illinois has two fairly easy games remaining against Oregon (+20) and at Maryland (+16).

The Boilermakers' loss to Ohio State dropped Purdue into a tie with Wisconsin for fifth place at 12-6, two games behind Nebraska and Michigan State. Purdue has a game this week at Northwestern (+9) while Wisconsin hosts Maryland (+15). Then, Wisconsin plays at Purdue (-9.5) in the final regular season game. 

That means that either Purdue or Wisconsin will finish with at least seven losses. From a Michigan State point of view, this means that it is impossible for MSU to finish below fifth place (and the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament).

Big Ten Tournament Seeding Scenarios

Based on the information above, Michigan State will end up with anywhere from the No. 2 to the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

Table 2 below shows the full set of odds for the conference.

Table 2: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of March 2.

Overall, MSU is highly likely to end up with the No. 3 seed (82% odds), but the No. 2 seed (16.5%) is also in play. The odds of the No. 4 seed (0.9%) and the No. 5 seed (0.3%) are exceedingly small.

Figure 1 below gives a more detailed breakdown of the potential Big Ten Tournament seeds based on the Spartans' final conference record.

Figure 1: Odds for Michigan State to earn each possible Big Ten Tournament seed based on MSU's final regular season record.

The different potential paths for the Spartans are quite clear.

If Michigan State beats both Rutgers and Michigan, the Spartans will get either the No. 2 or the No. 3 seed depending on how Nebraska finishes the regular season. Nebraska owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with MSU, so the Spartans will need to finish a game ahead of the Huskers in the final standings in order to move up to the No. 2 seed.

In the scenario where MSU wins out, Nebraska would just need to drop one of the last two games in order for Michigan State to pass them and earn the No. 2 seed. As Figure 1 implies, the projected spreads give Nebraska a 47% chance to win both of the remaining games. 

If Michigan State splits the final two games, almost certainly by beating Rutgers and losing at Michigan, the Spartans would still earn either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed.

In this scenario, the Cornhuskers would have to lose both of the remaining games in order for Michigan State to still pass them. As Figure 1 shows, this is far less likely with only a 9% chance.

The most complicated scenario is also the one that is the least likely. In the disaster scenario where Michigan State closes on a two-game losing streak, the full range of seeds from the No. 2 seed to the No. 5 seed are on the table, with the No. 4 seed as the most likely landing spot (67%).

In most cases, Michigan State would end up in a tie with some combination of teams including Illinois, Nebraska, Purdue, and Wisconsin at 14-6. The Spartans' final seed would depend on the exact combination of tied teams.

The result of the Purdue/Wisconsin game would have the largest potential impact as MSU owns a tiebreaker with Purdue, but not with Wisconsin. A win by Purdue would generally help the Spartans' seeding.

In this case, in order for the Spartans to drop to the No. 5 seed, Wisconsin would need to win out and force a tie with MSU. But, if Illinois were to also drop one game and force a three-way tie, Michigan State would jump the Fighting Illini and claim the No. 4 seed. Wisconsin would claim the No. 3 seed leaving Illinois with the No. 5 seed.

A 14-6 MSU team could still claim the No. 3 seed in situations where there is a three-way tie between Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue or between Michigan State, Purdue, and Nebraska. 

There is even a very unlikely scenario where Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, and Nebraska all finish in a tie for second place at 14-6. In this case, MSU would claim the No. 2 seed thanks to a 2-1 record against the group of tied teams.

Most Likely First Big Ten Opponent and BTT Odds

Regardless of all the analysis above, the bottom line is that Michigan State is most likely to earn the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Table 2 also implies that Wisconsin is the mostly team to earn the No. 6 seed.

Taken together there is just below a 50% chance overall that the Spartans will get a chance to avenge the Friday the 13th loss to the Badgers in Madison on Friday evening in Chicago.

But there are several other teams that could end up in Michigan State's Big Ten Tournament path. Purdue (10.6%) could slip to the No. 6 seed with a loss to Wisconsin in the regular season finale. 

UCLA (8%) is also a candidate at either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed position. Ohio State (4%) could also end up as a potential opponent if the Spartans land on the No. 2 seed.

There is also the possibility of a Thursday upset that could push a No. 10 or No. 11 seed onto the Spartans' calendar. Indiana (7.6%) and Washington (7.4%) are the most likely teams in this group.

No matter how the final bracket shakes out, the Spartans appear to be in a strong position to be a contender once the tournament is under way. Table 3 below gives the current overall odds for each team to advance and/or win the tournament.

Table 3: Big Ten Tournament odds based on 100,000 simulations of the remaining Big Ten regular season.

The number in the first column before each team is the projected seed if the projected favorite wins all remaining Big Ten games. However, the odds for each team to advance to each round are the overall odds from a collection of 100,000 simulations where various final brackets are considered.

The Spartans currently have the second best odds (16.3%) behind only the prohibitive favorite Michigan Wolverines (48.6%). 

In general, the Big Ten Tournament odds will mirror projected spreads and metrics such as Kenpom efficiency margins. However, Michigan State is currently the fourth best Big Ten team in Kenpom (No. 9) behind No. 1 Michigan, No. 5 Illinois, and No. 8 Purdue.

The fact that the Spartans currently have the second-best Big Ten Tournament odds speaks to the fact that the mostly likely draw is very advantageous for the Green and White. The most likely bracket currently has the top three Big Ten teams (according to Kenpom) seeded at No. 1, No. 4, and No. 5 - all on the same side of the bracket.

Instead, Michigan State is grouped with Nebraska (No. 11 in Kenpom) and teams such as Wisconsin (No. 30) and Ohio State (No. 35). The Spartans can potentially avoid Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue until the final, on Sunday, if MSU is around that long.

Another way to look at the odds for the Big Ten Tournament is that while Michigan has the best odds (48.6%), the pool of teams including Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, and Nebraska together have almost identical odds (48.3%). There is about a 3% chance that a team outside of the current top five will emerge as the Big Ten Tournament Champion.

Looking Forward to the Madness

The Big Ten Tournament is a both a fun way to end the season and an opportunity to hang a banner and claim a championship. But it is also secondary in importance to both the regular season and the more important tournament to come.

That said, the Big Ten Tournament does provide a final opportunity for teams to both polish their resumes or to stumble before the "real" postseason begins.

Bracketology is far from an exact science, but my analysis suggests that the two wins in the state of Indiana has put the Spartans safely on the No. 3 seed line for the NCAA Tournament with a chance to move up to the No. 2 line with a strong finish. 

Even if Michigan State were to lose to Rutgers, Michigan, and then a team such as Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament, a No. 4 seed is likely as far as the Spartans would fall. A win over Rutgers on Thursday night would virtually lock Michigan State into at least a No. 3 seed in the Big Dance, mostly because there would be no more opportunities on the schedule to take a "bad loss."

While the Spartans cannot catch the Wolverines overall, Michigan State does still have the opportunity to make a claim as the second-best Big Ten team with a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament. 

A win over Nebraska on a neutral floor in the Big Ten semifinals coupled with loses by Purdue and Illinois earlier in the tournament would very likely result in a No. 2 seed for the Spartans in the Big Dance, possibly with preferred geographics placement (i.e. not out west, so either the East or South Region).

While not very likely, I do believe that it is possible that the Spartans could still earn the final No. 1 seed in the South Region of the NCAA Tournament. In order for this to happen, Michigan State would need to run the table, including a win over Michigan in Ann Arbor as well as in the Big Ten Tournament championship game. In addition, teams such as Florida, UConn, Iowa State, and Houston would all likely need to stumble in the various conference tournaments.

No matter where the Spartans land on Selection Sunday, signs are starting to point to another successful Tom Izzo March run. Figure 2 below give the updated Kenpom scatter plot which shows the current landscape of contenders for the National Title.

Figure 2: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot.

As a reminder, Figure 2 plots the defensive prowess of a given basketball team on the vertical y-axis against the offensive prowess on the horizontal x-axis. A team in the lower right-hand corner is good on offense, but weaker on defense. A team in the upper left-hand corner of the figure is good on defense, but weaker on offense. A team in the upper right-hand corner is good at both.

Team who are good on both offense and defense are naturally contenders to win the National Championship. The shaded blue regions of the figure represent the efficiency profile of past national champions prior to the start of the NCAA Tournament. 

For most of the season, the Spartans have been one of approximately 10 teams that fits the profile of a potential NCAA Champion. MSU will almost certainly stay in the dark blue region on Selection Sunday.

This means that if Michigan State can continue to play at its current level, the Spartans are absolutely a viable Final Four and championship contender along with Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Houston, Florida, Iowa State, and Nebraska.

Figure 2 suggests that Gonzaga, Kansas, UConn, St. John's, and Tennessee are all fringe contenders due to slightly deficient defense. It should also be noted that Illinois, Purdue, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, and Alabama all fail to make the list of likely title contenders due to problems on the defensive end.

As for MSU's chances in the Big Dance, an initial simulation of a potentially realistic tournament bracket suggests that the Spartans have about a 65% chance to reach the Sweet 16, a 32% chance to reach the Regional Final, a 12% chance to reach the Final Four, and a 1-in-60 chance to win the National Title. These values are historically reasonable for a No. 3 seed.

As for the rest of the field, while experts are already penciling in teams like Michigan, Duke, and Arizona into the Final Four, my analysis suggests that each team has only about a 50-50 chance to make it there. Odds are at least one of those three teams will not make it to Indianapolis.

Furthermore, no team currently projects to have better than a 25% chance to win the national title. The current top three teams together have just over a 60% chance to cut down the nets in April.

This implies that it is still a smart bet to take Michigan, Duke, or Arizona versus the remaining field. However, it also implies that there is plenty of opportunity for madness to take hold. After a relatively "chalky" tournament in 2025, perhaps we are due to see just a little bit of chaos.

It is March, after all.

Let the madness begin.