Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Championship Week and Playoff Scenarios

The Michigan State Spartans' football team is done for 2025. But there is still a lot of action to analyze and discuss as college football moves into the postseason.

This weekend is there are nine game on the schedule, each of which will crown a new conference champion. Based on the results of those nine games, the College Football Playoff Committee will release the final set of rankings and the resulting bracket for the 12-team college football playoff. Let's discuss both topics.

Championship Weekend Bad Betting Advice

With the limited number of games this weekend, I will simply present my summary table of the nine games which includes my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. 

Note that the computers are not officially recommending a pick against the spread in any of the nine games, but there are four upset picks on the table.

In addition, my analysis has just one point-total bet for the weekend: North Texas and Tulane to combine for under 67.5 points.

See Table 1 below for the full details. 

Table 1: Summary of the action in Championship Weekend, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my computer. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

The Sun Belt Championship Game between James Madison (-20.5) and Troy is not projected to be close. In addition, the Big 12 Championship game between Texas Tech (-11.5) and BYU has a spread in the double digits. As we will see, the results of both games will likely have an impact on the final playoffs bracket.

The computers are split on which team will cover in the Sun Belt final. Both computers like BYU to cover the spread in the Big 12 title game, but Texas Tech is still expected to win. The remaining seven games are all expected to be much closer.

Ohio State (-5.5) opened as almost a touchdown favorite over Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game. Georgia (-1.5) is a much narrower favorite over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. 

In both games, ESPN's Football Power Index is picking the underdog to win. My computer sees both favorites coming out on top, but it agrees that Indiana will cover the spread against the Buckeyes.

North Texas (-3) is favored by a field goal over Tulane for the American Athletic Conference (AAC) title. In this case it is my algorithm that is picking the upset.

Both computers also like Kennesaw State (+1.5) to upset Jacksonville State in the Conference USA title game.

In the ACC Championship Game, Virginia (-2.5) is a slight favorite over Duke. Neither computer is forecasting an upset and they are split on which team will cover the spread.

The computers are also split on which team will cover in the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan (-3) is a slight favorite over Miami of Ohio. 

Both computers agree that Boise State (-1.5) will cover the spread against UNLV in the Mountain West Title Game.

Playoff Scenarios

Of the nine games this weekend, six of them have the potential to impact the college football playoff. The Championship Games in the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and ACC are the highest visibility games.

However, the results of the AAC and Sun Belt Championship Games will also likely impact the playoff bracket.

The most recant college football playoff rankings released Tuesday evening provides some hints as to what the selection committee is thinking. The most interesting and illuminated positioning occurs at the very end of the list. 

The playoff candidates worth paying attention to are:

• No. 17 Virginia

• No. 20 Tulane

• No. 24 North Texas

• No. 25 James Madison

Notably, Duke (7-5) and Troy (8-4) are both not ranked. This is not a surprise, but it does give a clear indication as to the teams that will eventually claim the No. 11 and No. 12 seeds in the playoffs.

The results of the ACC Championship Game (Virginia versus Duke), the AAC Championship Game (Tulane versus North Texas) and the Sun Belt Championship Game (James Madison versus Troy) will together determine which two teams will claim those final two spots.

The key point is that the top five ranked conference champions will all receive automatic bids to the playoffs. The Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 champions will claim the top three of those five spots.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the ACC Champion will claim a spot as well. If Virginia beats Duke, the Cavaliers would clearly finish ahead of any of the remaining conference champions. But if Duke upsets Virginia, the situation gets more interesting.

The rankings make it clear that the AAC champion (either Tulane or North Texas) will finish no worse than the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. James Madison has no chance to leapfrog either AAC team by beating Troy. Therefore, the AAC champion will be in the playoff.

But if Duke beats Virginia and James Madison wins the Sun Belt Title, it is very unlikely that the committee would move Duke into the standings ahead of James Madison. Therefore, there is a very real chance that both the AAC champ and James Madison will make the field, shutting the ACC out completely.

A Duke win coupled with a very unlikely upset by Troy over James Madison would force the committee to select the final conference champion from the pool of currently unranked teams. If this case, Duke would almost certainly get the nod over Troy as well as any of the other potential champions (such as Boise State, Kennesaw State, or Western Michigan).

Based on the results of these three games, eight different configurations of the No. 11 and No. 12 seed are possible. If Virginia win, the Cavaliers will claim the No. 11 seed with the No. 12 seed going to the AAC Champion. If Virginia loses, the AAC Champion will get the No. 11 seed and the No. 12 seed will go to either James Madison (with a win over Troy) or Duke.

The top of the bracket is also easy to predict based on the current rankings. Ohio State and Indiana are both undefeated and ranked No. 1 and No. 2. The winner of the Big Ten Championship is guaranteed the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. The loser between Ohio State and Indiana should not fall any farther than to No. 3 in the final rankings.

My best guess is that the No. 2 seed will go to Georgia, as long as the Bulldogs beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. In this case the loser of the Big Ten Championship Game would fall to No. 3. However, if Alabama upsets Georgia, I would expect the Big Ten to hold onto the top two slots.

Based on this analysis, the remaining seeds will be determined based on the outcome of the SEC and Big 12 Championship Games. This means that there are four different scenarios that could play out.

Scenario One (the most likely): 43% odds

The most likely scenario is the one where the two favorites both win. Based on the current spreads, this means that Georgia and Texas Tech are the SEC and Big 12 Champions.

If this scenario, the Big Ten champion would get the No. 1 seed, Georgia would most likely be rewarded with the No. 2 seed, the loser of the Big Ten Championship Game would be given the No. 3 seed, and Big 12 champions Texas Tech would mostly likely get the No. 4 seed.

The seeding after that would mostly likely follow the order of the current playoff rankings. The only question is where Alabama would land following a loss to Georgia. The obvious option would be to drop Alabama to the No. 10 seed, allowing only Notre Dame to pass the Tide. This placement allows for the following bracket:

No. 1 Ohio State/Indiana (Rose Bowl in second round)

--No. 8 Oklahoma

--No. 9 Notre Dame

No. 4 Texas Tech (Cotton Bowl in the second round)

--No. 5 Oregon

--No. 12 Tulane/North Texas/James Madison/Duke

No. 3 Indiana/Ohio State (Orange Bowl in the second round)

--No. 6 Ole Miss

--No. 11 Virginia/Tulane/North Texas

No. 2 Georgia (Sugar Bowl in the second round)

--No. 7 Texas A&M

--No. 10 Alabama

Also note that the Big Ten Champion (No. 1 seed) would draw the Peach Bowl as the venue in the national semifinals due to proximity. The two surviving teams from the bottom half of the bracket would meet in the Fiesta Bowl in the other national semifinal. This is true for all four scenarios.

In this configuration, Alabama draws Texas A&M in the first round. Those two SEC teams did not face each other in the regular season, making this matchup more appealing. There is the potential for Alabama and Georgia to face each other again in the second round, which is not ideal.

One possible alternative would be to keep Alabama as the No. 9 seed, but this would create a rematch between Alabama and Oklahoma in the first round, which is also not ideal. Another possible solution would be to swap the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, but this creates a more likely rematch between Georgia and Ole Miss in the second round.

A less likely, but perhaps ideal solution would be to place Georgia in the No. 3 seed slot and to swap Oregon and Ole Miss in the No. 5 and No. 6 slots. This would create better overall conference balance, but it would require the committee to reorder teams that did not play at all in the final weekend.

In theory, the official seeding principles direct the committee not to reorder teams for the purpose of keeping conference opponents in separate areas of the bracket or to avoid regular season rematches.

That said, this principle is foolish and misguided. If the committee members are smart, they will ignore this principle under the more important mandate of creating the most interesting and exciting tournament possible.

This is the single largest problem with the current 12-team playoff. Avoiding regular season rematches should be a primary guideline in the construction of the bracket. This is a core principle in the construction of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, which is the gold standard for tournament design and seeding principles. Changing the current, idiotic rule needs to be a priority the next time the rules are modified.

Scenario Two (second most likely): 36% odds

In this scenario, Texas Tech still beats BYU, but Alabama earns a mild upset over Georgia to win the SEC. The big questions here are how far does Alabama rise and how far does Georgia fall?

My solution would be to award Alabama with the No. 4 seed and a bye while dropping Georgia down past Oregon to the No. 6 seed. Texas Tech would move up to the No. 3 seed and the loser of the Big Ten Championship game would hold at the No. 2 seed. The remaining teams would maintain the current positions.

Using this logic, the bracket would look like this:

No. 1 Ohio State/Indiana (Rose Bowl)

--No. 8 Texas A&M

--No. 9 Oklahoma

No. 4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl)

--No. 5 Oregon

--No. 12 Tulane/North Texas/James Madison/Duke

No. 3 Texas Tech (Cotton Bowl)

--No. 6 Georgia

--No. 11 Virginia/Tulane/North Texas

No. 2 Indiana/Ohio State (Orange Bowl)

--No. 7 Ole Miss

--No. 10 Notre Dame

This configuration creates a really nice balance by placing at least one SEC team in each of the four branches of the bracket. Oklahoma and Texas A&M would face each other in the first round, but the two former Big 12 rivals did not face other each in the regular season. In fact, the last game between the Sooners and the Aggies was the Cotton Bowl in January of 2013.

Scenario Three (third most likely): 11% odds

In this scenario, BYU upsets Texas Tech to win the Big 12, and Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Here BYU would earn an automatic bid a conference champion. The inclusion of the Cougars would mean that one team would get bumped out of the bracket.

The two leading candidates are the two teams currently at the bottom of the top 10: No. 9 Alabama and No. 10 Notre Dame. In this case, Alabama would have one more loss on their resume and for me this is enough to bump the Tide below the Irish and out of the field.

That said, there has been some discussion that the committee should not punishing teams for losing in conference championship games. It is therefore possible that Alabama would hold position above Notre Dame resulting in the exclusion of the Fighting Irish.

The other major question in this scenario involves the placement of the two Big 12 teams. How far would Texas Tech drop and how far would BYU rise?

My best guess here is that the two teams would meet in the middle at the line separating the one-loss teams (No. 7 Texas A&M) and the two-loss teams (No. 8 Oklahoma). Despite the loss in the Big 12 Championship Game, I would leave Texas Tech one spot above BYU in the final rankings.

Using this logic and assuming the Alabama is the first team out, here is my proposed bracket in this scenario:

No. 1 Ohio State/Indiana (Rose Bowl in second round)

--No. 8 BYU

--No. 9 Oklahoma

No. 4 Oregon (Cotton Bowl in the second round)

--No. 5 Ole Miss

--No. 12 Tulane/North Texas/James Madison/Duke

No. 3 Indiana/Ohio State (Orange Bowl in the second round)

--No. 6 Texas A&M

--No. 11 Virginia/Tulane/North Texas

No. 2 Georgia (Sugar Bowl in the second round)

--No. 7 Texas Tech

--No. 10 Notre Dame

Once again, this produces a well-balanced bracket with the four remaining SEC teams placed in the four different branches. If Alabama were to make the cut over Notre Dame, there would be the potential for a Georgia/Alabama rematch in the second round. In this case, I would be tempted to swap the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds.

The one thing that the committee absolutely should not do in this case would be to place BYU and Texas Tech in the No. 8 and No. 9 seed slots. That would result in a first-round rematch of the Big 12 playoffs. 

If the committee were to make this move, in my opinion this would be grounds for immediate termination for all committee members. This kind bracket construct would be a crime against sports fans everywhere and a sign of blatant incompetence.

Scenario Four (least likely): 10% odds

In this scenario, BYU upsets Texas Tech to win the Big 12, and Alabama upsets Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. As in Scenario Three, BYU would earn an automatic bid a conference champion and Notre Dame would almost certainly be the first team out of the bracket. 

The placement of BYU, Texas Tech, Alabama, and Georgia would mirror the placements shown above in Scenarios Two and Three. The resulting bracket is shown below.

No. 1 Ohio State/Indiana (Rose Bowl)

--No. 8 Texas A&M

--No. 9 BYU

No. 4 Oregon (Cotton Bowl)

--No. 5 Georgia

--No. 12 Tulane/North Texas/James Madison/Duke

No. 3 Alabama (Sugar Bowl)

--No. 6 Ole Miss

--No. 11 Virginia/Tulane/North Texas

No. 2 Indiana/Ohio State (Orange Bowl)

--No. 7 Texas Tech

--No. 10 Oklahoma

The main note here is that I have placed No. 7 Texas Tech above No. 8 Texas A&M. This is different than the order in Scenario Three, but this placement allows a separation of Big 12 and SEC teams in the bracket. 

The only possible early-round conference matchup would be No. 3 Alabama versus No. 6 Ole Miss in the second round. Those teams did not face each other in the regular season, so this placement makes sense.

Based on the current Vegas spreads for each game and the assumptions and analysis outlined above, it is possible to calculate the odds for each of the 16 teams still alive in the playoff hunt to receive any of the 12 available seeds. The results of these calculations are shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: Summary of the odds for each team to receive each potential seed in the 2025 College Football Playoff using the current Vegas betting line and the assumptions outlined above.

That is all the advice I have for today. Enjoy Championship Week and the other huge events taking place on Michigan State's campus this weekend. Stay tuned to Spartans Illustrated for more analysis of the college football season as well as the upcoming Big Ten basketball season.