Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week 11: Welcomed Distractions

The 2025 football season has not gone according to plan for the Michigan State Spartans. This week, the Spartans have a bye, so there is not a lot to discuss on the East Lansing gridiron front. The coaching staff and players are taking a break, circling the wagons, and trying to figure out how to make the most of the remainder of the season.

For Spartan fans, I recommend taking advantage of this opportunity to have a week away from football. There are several other potential welcomed distractions in other areas of campus. 

Notably, the No. 1 ranked Michigan State hockey team hosts No. 3 Penn State for a two-game series at Munn Ice Arena this Friday and Saturday. Both teams are legitimate National Title contenders. If you have not been to a game at Munn Ice Arena recently, give it some thought.

On Saturday night, the No. 22 Michigan State men's basketball team welcomes John Calipari and the No. 15 Arkansas Razorbacks to the Breslin Center. This game will mark only the sixth time the two hall-of-fame coaches have faced each other and it will be the first time for Calipari to visit Breslin.

Tom Izzo is current 2-3 against Calipari and looks to even the series. Michigan State is currently a narrow 1.5-point favorite.

With any luck, one or more of these other high visibility games will bring some joy to Spartan fans and help take our minds off of the gridiron for a week or so.

But just because Michigan State football is taking a break that doesn't mean the rest of the country is also idle. Data and analysis never take the week off. Let's take a quick look at the other action this weekend.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week 11, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. 

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 11, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

A total of four Big Ten teams have a bye this week leaving a total of seven conference games.

Unless there is a fairly large upset in over the next few weeks, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana will meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

This week Indiana travels to No. 22 Penn State (+13) and the game is likely the final real hurdle between the Hoosiers and Indianapolis. My computer is picking Indiana to cover, while the FPI is betting on Penn State to beat the spread.

As for the Buckeyes, they travel to No. 74 Purdue (+28.5) and a blowout win is expected. 

As for the rest of the conference, several teams are jockeying for a potential playoff spot or (less likely) a chance to sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game if either Indiana or Ohio State were to stumble.

No. 3 Oregon is likely (72%) to earn a playoff spot and has the best odds as a potential Big Ten title game spoiler, but the Ducks need to get past their final Midwest road game of the season at No. 18 Iowa (+5.5). If the Hawkeyes get the upset win, they would see both their playoff and spoiler odds increase.

Both Oregon and Iowa are in fierce competition near the top of the standing with No. 17 USC. The Trojans should be able to get past No. 53 Northwestern (+14.5) in L.A., but USC will clash with both Oregon and Iowa over the next two weekends. 

If any of teams out of Iowa, Oregon, or USC can manage to go 2-0 in this November mini-round robin, it will have a major advantage coming down the home stretch. Fans of No. 21 Michigan need to root for those three teams to beat up on each other as all three would likely hold an advantage over the Wolverines in potential conference tiebreakers due to relative strength of schedule.

No. 26 Washington also has faint playoff hopes (9%) but the Huskies will almost certainly need to run the table to make those hopes a reality. Washington is a double-digit favorite on the road at No. 84 Wisconsin (+10.5). The computers are split on which team will cover.

No. 54 Nebraska will attempt to bolster the Cornhuskers' bowl position at No. 73 UCLA (+2). A loss by the Bruins would put them on the brink of bowl elimination with Ohio State, Washington, and USC still on the schedule.

Simple bowl eligibility will also be on the line when No. 60 Maryland travels to No. 72 Rutgers (-1). Neither team can likely afford a loss if they plan to make the postseason. My computer is picking the Terrapins in a mild upset.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football landscape in Week 11.

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week 11 including my algorithms' projected scores.

In SEC action, the top three teams on my leaderboard all have somewhat tricky matchups. Current favorite, No. 12 Alabama (-11) hosts No. 16 LSU. Both computers expect this game to be closer than the spread implies.

No. 8 Texas A&M (-6) is on the road at No. 27 Missouri and No. 11 Georgia (-7.5) travels to No. 36 Mississippi State. Those games should all be competitive, and a loss by any of the three favorites could cost them a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

Dark horse SEC contenders No. 7 Oklahoma and No. 14 Texas are on a bye. No. 13 Ole Miss might as well be on a bye as the Rebels are predicted to beat FCS opponent the Citadel by over 50 points.

Half of the primary contenders in the Big 12 are also on a bye week. No. 4 Utah and No. 45 Cincinnati are both idle. But the two current conference favorites square off as No. 5 Texas Tech (-10.5) hosts No. 10 BYU. Both computers expect a close game.

In the ACC, two of the teams in my current top six are on a bye (No. 42 Georgia Tech and No. 29 Pittsburgh) and the other four teams face opponents from the bottom of the ACC standings or elsewhere.

No. 35 Louisville (-18.5) is expected to have the easiest time against No. 78 California and No. 40 SMU (-12) is a double-digit favorite at No. 109 Boston College. 

No. 47 Duke (-8.5) is expected to face a slightly stiffer challenge at Independent No. 87 UConn. Current favorite No. 34 Virginia (-6.5) is expected to be in a slightly closer contest versus No. 63 Wake Forest.

In Group of Five action, the biggest game of the weekend features No. 49 Tulane at No. 41 Memphis (-6.5) in what is likely a elimination game for a spot in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game and thus also for the playoffs.

Elsewhere in the AAC, No. 25 East Carolina (-28.5) is a huge favorite versus No. 133 Charlotte and No. 32 South Florida (-13.5) is expected to get past No. 71 Texas San Antonio. No. 28 North Texas has the week off.

Current Mountain West favorite No. 15 San Diego State (-4.5) makes the flight to visit No. 92 Hawaii and No. 39 James Madison (-13) visits No. 88 Marshall. My computer thinks that San Diego State will cover easily and both computers predict that James Madison will fail to cover.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 11.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 11.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 11.

My computer suggests a total of six upset picks in Week 11 including Colorado over West Virginia (-5.5), Houston over UCF (-1.5), Florida State over Clemson (-1.5), and Maryland over Rutgers (-1).  The FPI agrees with the Florida State picks and adds a pick from Conference USA (Middle Tennessee over Florida International).

Note that on Wednesday-night MACtion, Kent State failed to upset Ball State (-2) as my computer forecasted. Kent failed on a late fourth-and-short conversion, allowing Ball State to score the winning touchdown in this final minutes. Thanks for nothing, jerks.

A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 14.4 plus-or-minus 3.0 upsets out of 51 games is most likely. 

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 11. The picks are listed in order of confidence score

Combined the computers recommend just three total bets against the spread this week. As the season progresses, the computers start to match the Vegas spread more closely. This results in fewer recommendations from my analysis of the data.

My computer suggests bets on East Carolina (-28.5) cover versus Charlotte and San Diego State (-4.5) to cover at Hawaii. The FPI is picking BYU (+10.5) to cover versus Texas Tech.

Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 11. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My computer has 10 total recommended point-total bets, and somehow all 10 are considered locks. 

A few notable recommendations from Table 5 including Indiana and Penn State combining for over 48.5 points, Texas A&M and Missouri combining for over 49.5 points. Oregon and Iowa combining for over 43.5 points, and Nebraska and UCLA combining for over 43.5 points.

That is all the advice I have for you this week. Hopefully my analysis is also a welcomed distraction. Enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to rewind and see how the picks above panned out.