Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Eight: Hoosiers
Today, I present to you an underdog story.
Today, I present to you an underdog story. Strap Purl might even refer to it as a story of David versus Goliath.
The Michigan State football team is in the midst of a suddenly tumultuous season. The loss last week to the Bruins of UCLA has shaken the small, football-loving community of East Lansing to its core. This week, the Spartans travel to the city of Bloomington to face the mighty and undefeated Indiana Hoosiers.
The Hoosiers are big and athletic and suddenly ranked No. 3 in the country. The Spartans find themselves banged up and with a shrinking bench. The odds are heavily stacked against them.
To add to the drama, Michigan State has a coach that is suddenly under fire. Members of the community are speaking out and questing if he is the right man for the job.
But Head Coach Jonathan Smith is undaunted by the criticism. He is focused on getting back to work. His team needs to get back to basics. There needs to be a focus on fundamentals and defense and on all 11 guys on the field functioning as one single unit. I would imagine that the practices this week are not designed for the enjoyment of the players.
Maybe Smith is even considering some new wrinkles on offense. Perhaps quarterback Aidan Chiles should consider a few underhanded throws. It worked for Ollie. On second thought, maybe not.
If nothing else, Michigan State fans need to see some signs of progress this weekend even in the face of very tall odds. Spartan fans need to feel hope that the season and the program are not on the brink of disaster.
If the Spartans can put their effort and concentration into playing to their potential, to be the best that they can be, I don't care what the scoreboard says at the end of the game, that will be progress. There is still time to turn this season and the Jonathan Smith era around, even if the game on Saturday does not go the Spartans' way.
Some Spartan fans may not agree with this sentiment, and I can understand their frustration. But to those fans I offer up a (slightly modified) quote from a film about another group of Hoosiers that feels appropriate to the moment.
"I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. These 117 individuals have made a choice to work, a choice to sacrifice, to put themselves on the line for 12 games for the next few months, to represent you, this University. That kind of commitment and effort deserves and demands your respect. This is your team."
In tough times like these, it is important to remember that we are all Spartans.
Perhaps these words move you and perhaps they don't. If not, well, all I can offer to you is that basketball season is right around the corner.
Michigan State Prediction
The Michigan State/Indiana rivalry goes back to 1922 and includes a total of 71 games. Only the Michigan Wolverines (117) and Notre Dame (79) have faced the Spartans more times than the Hoosiers. Michigan State currently holds the overall edge in the series, 51-18-2. Michigan State has more wins over Indiana than over any other program.
As the overall record indicates the Spartans have dominated the battle for the Brass Spittoon. Between 1970 and 2019, Indiana posted only seven total wins over Michigan State. The Hoosiers have not won back-to-back games over the Spartans since 1968 and 1969.
But the series has been much more competitive since 2020. Indiana is 3-2 against Michigan State in this span with the road team winning all five contests. This includes an upset win by Indiana in East Lansing in 2022 and an upset win by Michigan State in Bloomington in 2023.
If the trend of upsets and the road team prevailing is going to continue, the Spartans will have to beat the odds to do it. Indiana opened as 26.5-point favorites, which suggests that Michigan State has only a 3% chance to pull off the upset. That is slightly worse than the historical odds of a No. 15 seed beating a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
It is truly a David versus Goliath story this week.
My computer is even less confident in the Spartans' prospect against the Hoosiers than LAs Vegas is. The machines are all in for Goliath this week. My computer's official score prediction is Indiana 51, Michigan State 7.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Eight, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that any rankings discussed below are my system's power rankings and not any of the national polls.
