The Michigan State Spartans spent much of the past two months on a hunt that kept coming up empty. They lost six straight games while wandering the forest, searching for consistency, crisp execution, and better health.
Meanwhile, Spartan fans were waiting for a sign of hope that better days were at least on the horizon and not just a careless memory of the past.
Last weekend, as dusk fell, the Spartan Dawgs finally got back in touch with the ground game. Then they broke from the crowd, burning the ground under the moonlight at the Big House.
The presumed hunters became the hunted, and the Spartans, hungry for something positive to finally happen, eked out a win over those carrion-eating weasels from Ann Arbor. The result was a mix of howling and whining from the two fan bases.
It certainly was not pretty. Some would say it was more discord than rhyme. But it got the job done, and the Spartans are still chasing six wins and a possible bowl trip over the holidays.
Michigan State is motivated and recharged, but another dogfight awaits this week, courtesy of a pack of wolf-like visitors from the Pacific Northwest. Their name is the Washington Huskies. The question is whether that hunger and energy will carry the Spartans to another win or whether the Green and White will get caught with a hangover or in a food coma.
From a big-picture perspective, the situation is eerily similar to last week. If Washington wins, the Huskies will be bowl eligible. If not, they could easily finish 5-7 with games remaining against Indiana and Oregon.
If the Spartans lose, they will be eliminated from postseason consideration, and the season will officially come undone. If Michigan State wins, the Spartans live to hunt another day.
Which team is going to come in hungrier? Now that they have the taste for blood, I have a feeling it just might be the team in Green and White.
So watch out, Huskies. The Spartans are on the hunt for the postseason, and they are after you.
Can Michigan State ride the momentum of last week?
Michigan State and Washington have met only five times, so there is not much boys-on-film history to study. The Huskies hold a 4-1 series lead.
The two schools split a home-and-home series in 1969 and 1970. The teams would not meet again until the Aloha Bowl in 1997, where the Huskies prevailed again.
Shortly before Washington joined the Big Ten, the two schools met in 2022 in Seattle and in 2023 in East Lansing. The Michael Penix Jr.-led Huskies gnawed on the Spartans like a chew toy in both contests, covering the spread and winning easily straight up each time.
Coming into the season, Washington was projected to be a top-25-caliber team, and this week's contest was supposed to be one of the more challenging games on the Big Ten schedule.
But the Huskies have struggled more than expected this year and are just 2-4 in conference play and 5-4 overall. My current power ranking has Washington at No. 48 overall, similar to the FPI ranking of No. 47. SP+ is more optimistic, ranking the Huskies No. 35.
Oddly, most of Washington's losses came in Seattle. Minnesota, Iowa, and most recently Penn State all flew in and stole the Huskies' Starbucks money. Washington also lost a close game on the road at USC.
However, the Huskies have been better on the road, winning at both Purdue and Nebraska in two of their last three games.
This week's game in East Lansing marks the third and final flight to the Midwest for Washington. Notably, the previous two trips bookended the Huskies' bye week. This time, they are making the long flight for the second time in three weeks, with a tough game against Penn State sandwiched in between.
Will the cumulative toll of travel catch up with the Huskies?
The Las Vegas line for this week's game opened with Washington as a 3.5-point road favorite, and so far that line is holding steady. That suggests the Spartans are the home dogs with a 40% chance to win straight up.
But my algorithm has a bit more appetite for an upset. Inspired (mathematically) by the Spartans' performance in Ann Arbor, it is officially calling for a win by the Green and White. The final score prediction is Michigan State 23, Washington 22.
That is so nice you can go ahead and say it twice. Feel free to call it "The Reflex."
Note that FPI also sees a very close game but still favors the Huskies by less than a point. SP+ projects a 9-point win for the visiting pack.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten's Week 11 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and each computer's projected margin.
The Spartan Dawgs have a taste for blood, but Washington is not the only game on the menu. Subscribe to see my algorithm's picks for every Big Ten game, the national action, this week's upset picks, and the best bets against the spread. Don't go hungry. Join Spartans Illustrated and get the full Week 11 edition of Bad Betting Advice.
