Bad Betting Advice, Week 6: Home Remedies

It would not be a stretch to suggest that Michigan State football is feeling a bit under the weather.

The Spartans felt good after beating a pair of MAC teams in early September. Then, the Green and White caught a case of the sniffles after staying out late on a Saturday night in South Bend. Their condition worsened over the next two weeks against Nebraska and Wisconsin.

The symptoms include the dropsies, a rash (of injuries), an acute turnover deficiency, frequent pocket collapses, and sudden weakness on fourth-down attempts.

This week, Michigan State returns home to face the Illinois Fighting Illini. The visitors are guests for the Spartans’ 2026 homecoming weekend, but they arrive with ill intentions. The question is whether Michigan State is on the road to recovery or whether the patient is about to take another turn for the worse.

Fortunately, this particular doctor is in, and I have a feeling the Fighting Illini might offer a cure for what ails the Spartans. A homecoming win would be chicken soup for the soul of the Michigan State program and settle the sour feeling in Spartans fans’ stomachs.

The Illini have not exactly enjoyed a clean bill of health, either. Illinois already has home losses to Duke and Purdue, plus a blowout road loss at Ohio State. The Illini's only wins came against UAB and FCS opponent Southern Illinois, both ranked below MSU’s weakest opponent to date, Eastern Michigan.

Furthermore, my analysis suggests that the Spartans’ past three opponents might be better than some so-called experts believe. Facing a team outside the top 15 in this good doctor’s power rankings could be just the remedy the Green and White need.

Perhaps a home-cooked meal, a few nights’ rest in their own beds, and a weaker opponent are just what the doctor ordered. A few players returning from injury would not hurt, either. But there is only one proven cure for what ails the Spartans: a homecoming win.

Will Michigan State Get That Win on Homecoming?

Michigan State and Illinois have met 49 times, with the Spartans holding a 27-19-2 series lead.

The series has gone through several cycles of remission and relapse since it began in 1955. The Fighting Illini held a narrow 5-3 edge through the mid-1960s. Beginning in 1965, the Spartans dominated the series, 8-2-1, through the end of the 1970s.

The Illini’s condition then improved dramatically, as Illinois went 9-3-1 over the next 15 years. Nick Saban’s arrival in East Lansing in 1995 shifted the momentum back to the Green and White. The Spartans posted a 12-1 record against the Fighting Illini from 1995 through 2013.

Since 2013, the teams have met only four times, and Illinois has won three of those matchups. That includes the most recent meeting, a 38-16 Illini victory in Champaign in 2024.

Since 2001, Michigan State has been favored in nine of the 11 meetings. The Spartans even scored an upset in one of the other two, winning by eight as a 16-point underdog in Champaign in 2022.

But the Fighting Illini have pulled three upsets over the Spartans in that span. The first was a massive win as a 26.5-point road underdog in 2006, a result that helped flatline the tenure of coach John L. Smith’s.

Illinois also upset Mark Dantonio’s terminally dysfunctional team as an 8.5-point underdog in 2016, then won as a 14.5-point road underdog in 2019. In that neon-clad fever dream, Michigan State led 28-3 before a Hail Mary at the end of the first half sparked a furious Illinois comeback.

This year’s matchup is different. For the first time since at least 2003, Michigan State is a home underdog against Illinois. The line opened with the Fighting Illini favored by three points, then moved slightly toward the Spartans at some sportsbooks.

Based on historical data, Michigan State has a 42% chance to spring the upset win on homecoming.

As noted above, the Michigan State-Illinois series has had its share of twists and turns. I expect the 2026 edition to be no different. Despite the odds and the sickly mood in East Lansing, my computer sensing the signs of recovery. Its diagnosis: Michigan State 26, Illinois 23.

The projected total of 49 points sits near the range posted by several sportsbooks. I would have taken the under on the opening total of 49.5, but that number appears to have dropped during the week.

As always, make sure to read the label on this bottle of advice carefully.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten’s Week 6 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and the computers’ projected margins.

The doctor’s full Week 6 prescription is waiting. Subscribe for projected scores, upset picks, and the best bets against the spread.