Bad Betting Advice, 2026 Week 7: Somebody that I used to know

Breaking up is hard to do, but it is an experience almost everyone goes through at least once. In some cases, a very awkward situation can arise when someone happens to run into an ex in the cereal aisle at the grocery store or in line for a latte at a coffee shop.

On Saturday at Spartan Stadium, about 70,000 Michigan State fans may experience their own version of this awkwardness. One of their exes recently moved to suburban Chicago, but Spartan fans are about to encounter somebody that they used to know.

That somebody is Northwestern starting quarterback Aidan Chiles.

Chiles’ relationship with the Spartans lasted almost two years. Now and then, when I think of when he first announced his transfer to Michigan State, I remember how happy Spartan fans were. They told themselves that he was the right quarterback for East Lansing.

Chiles received plenty of love from Spartans fans at first, but the relationship slowly soured. He struggled with inconsistency, turnovers, and injuries. After he started eight games in 2025, the coaches decided they could no longer make sense of playing him. Michigan State decided it was time to see someone new at quarterback, turning to Alessio Milivojevic.

Many still wonder what might have been with Chiles. It was love, and it is an ache some still remember. Some Spartan fans can get addicted to a certain kind of sadness. Other Spartan fans were glad that it was over.

Since moving to Evanston, Chiles has found a new partner in Wildcats offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, and the two appear to be enjoying a promising honeymoon. So far this season, Chiles has completed 71% of his passes, thrown nine touchdown passes, rushed for six scores, and avoided an interception.

It is nice to see that Chiles has landed on his feet and is thriving in his new relationship. When he and Michigan State parted ways, they promised they would still be friends. That promise, however, expires at kickoff Saturday.

Chiles is not the only somebody who might face an awkward moment Saturday afternoon. When Northwestern fans look across the field toward the home sideline, they are likely to recognize another somebody that they used to know.

Michigan State coach Pat Fitzgerald spent four years as a Northwestern linebacker, followed by 21 years on the coaching staff, including 17 as head coach.

In 2023, Fitzgerald and Northwestern had a very messy and public breakup. The parties settled in 2025, and Northwestern said there was no evidence of wrongdoing on Fitzgerald’s part.

It is hard to guess how Fitzgerald really feels about the matter. Now and then, he may think of all the times his alma mater screwed him over or had him believing it was something that he had done. At the very least, he likely believes Northwestern didn’t have to stoop so low.

Either way, one former flame will get the last word this weekend. Maybe the Spartan Marching Band will even feature a xylophone solo at halftime to set the mood. Every awkward reunion deserves an appropriate soundtrack.

Can Michigan State Finally Get a Big Ten Win?

Michigan State and Northwestern have met 60 times, with the Spartans holding a 41-19 advantage based on on-field results.

The Wildcats won the first three meetings, played between 1905 and 1924. The teams did not meet again until 1959.

From 1959 through 2000, the Spartans dominated the series, going 32-9 against Northwestern.

Since 2001, however, the matchup has been far more competitive. Michigan State holds a 9-7 straight-up edge, while the teams are even at 8-8 against the spread.

Exactly half of those 16 games ended in upsets. Northwestern produced six of the eight, and all but one of the upsets occurred at Spartan Stadium.

Michigan State pulled the upset in the two most recent meetings, in 2020 and 2021. In 2020, the Spartans knocked off a ranked Northwestern team during the COVID-19 season. A year later, Kenneth Walker III announced his arrival in the Big Ten with 264 rushing yards and four touchdowns, including a score on the first play from scrimmage.

Michigan State has been favored in all but three meetings since 2001. This year, the Spartans opened as 9-point underdogs, and the line has since fallen to 7.5. The 2021 meeting was the only other time in the past 25 years that Michigan State entered this matchup as a home underdog.

Can the Spartans rekindle that magic and upset a ranked Wildcats team?

Unfortunately, I have serious doubts. As confident as I was that Michigan State would beat Illinois, I am even more certain that Northwestern will take care of business in East Lansing. After Illinois carved up the Spartans’ depleted secondary last weekend, the prospect of a Chip Kelly-coached offense led by a highly motivated Aidan Chiles is a frightening one.

The only thing that might stop Northwestern from scoring is the game clock at the end of each half. My computer is no more optimistic than I am. Its prediction is Northwestern 32, Michigan State 17.

I would love to be wrong, but I do not see the Spartans staying within two touchdowns of the Wildcats.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten’s Week 7 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and the projected margin from each computer.

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