When it comes to franchises, sometimes you get a sequel, and sometimes you need a reboot.

For the 2026 Michigan State football team, a reboot was certainly required. In fact, fans would probably prefer to have the past few timelines purged from their memories, as if by a strange magician’s spell.

Mel who? Jonathan who? Never heard of them.

Instead, there is a new sheriff in town. He is a gruff Chicago native, built like a linebacker, who looks vaguely familiar. Didn’t that guy used to wear purple? New head coach Pat Fitzgerald wears the only colors these days, and he brings an old-school Big Ten mentality to this particular origin story. It all feels both familiar and refreshing in the friendly neighborhoods around East Lansing.

But Fitzgerald is not the only new face in East Lansing. The Spartans added 32 transfers and 30 incoming freshmen, enough new characters to fill a prequel and at least one confusing Disney+ series. Keep the roster handy Friday night when this new cast makes its debut.

As with any reboot, the central question is whether this new group can recapture the magic of Michigan State’s peak years. Will the Spartans show progress and a spark right away, or will fans have to wait for another sequel to learn whether the program is finally on the right path?

Perhaps new heroes will rise in 2026. Or perhaps the opener will leave Spartan fans not feeling so good and unsure what is happening. One thing is certain: It is a brand-new day for Michigan State football, and that new day brings a multiverse of possibilities.

Can Michigan State Avoid a Week 1 Upset?

Friday night will mark only the second all-time meeting between Michigan State and the Toledo Rockets. The Spartans defeated the Rockets 58-0 in 1925. A lot has changed in the ensuing century.

This version of Toledo should provide a much stiffer test. The Rockets begin the season No. 93 in my consensus poll, 27 spots behind Michigan State. The media picked them to finish third in the Mid-American Conference, behind Western Michigan and Miami (Ohio), and my preseason simulation reached the same conclusion.

The Rockets opened as 12-point underdogs, but the line quickly tightened to about 10 points. Historically, that spread gives Michigan State roughly an 80% chance to open the Fitzgerald era with a victory.

So will the Spartans notch their 46th win against a MAC opponent, or will they stumble for the seventh time in history against a team from that conference?

My algorithm sets the line slightly above the current market and just below the opener. I project an 11.5-point Michigan State victory, which suggests a play on the Spartans to cover.

My projected final is Michigan State 34, Toledo 22. That score also points to the over on the current point total of 49.5.

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