Bad Betting Advice, Week 4: High Fructose
Dr. Green and White serves up a sweet preview of Michigan State-Nebraska, along with computer-projected Week 4 upsets, spread picks, and point-total bets.
The first few weeks of the college football season can be a time of excess. Although we are already a quarter of the way through the season, a few teams have enjoyed a steady diet of cupcakes.
For many teams, margins of victory have been high, players from deep on the bench have seen the field, and each weekend has brought the sweet feeling of a blowout victory. In many cases, however, those wins have provided little more than empty calories.
The Michigan State Spartans will face the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday. So far, the Huskers' résumé has the aftertaste of high-fructose syrup.
Nebraska has three home wins against Ohio, Bowling Green, and North Dakota by a combined score of 139-35. However, the better of the two MAC teams, Ohio, barely cracks the top 100 of my latest power poll, and North Dakota plays in the FCS.
The only FBS win by any Nebraska opponent this season is Ohio's four-overtime victory over Jacksonville State, which moved up from the FCS only four seasons ago. That is an overly generous portion of dessert.
The Spartans certainly partook in a couple of sweet treats to begin the season, but last week's trip to South Bend was more like a heavy helping of meat and potatoes.
It is still early, but Spartan fans like what Pat Fitzgerald is cooking in East Lansing. His high-energy style and gritty mentality have already rubbed off on the Michigan State players. After seeing what it is like to face a top-tier team in the Fighting Irish, the Spartans appear ready for the main course.
The key question is whether Nebraska has the stomach to match that energy in its first road game of the season, especially against a team that has already faced the most talented opponent on its schedule.
On paper, Nebraska should be the more talented team. But you cannot always believe what is on the label. Until a team is truly tested, no one knows what it is made of. The proof is in the pudding.
For Michigan State, Saturday's game begins a string of very winnable contests that will ultimately determine whether Fitzgerald's first season with the Green and White takes the cake or turns out to be a lemon.
A loss to Nebraska would certainly leave a bitter taste in Spartan fans' mouths. An upset win, however, would be a delicious treat.
Will Michigan State Experience the Sweet Taste of Victory in Its Conference Opener?
The Michigan State Spartans and Nebraska Cornhuskers have met 14 times. The Spartans lost the first two meetings, in 1914 and 1920. Seventy-five years later, Michigan State was blown out in consecutive seasons by Tom Osborne's juggernaut from Lincoln.
The teams met for the fifth time in the 2003 Alamo Bowl, when coach John L. Smith and the Spartans fell to the Huskers.
Since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten, however, the series has been more competitive. Nebraska won the first two meetings as a conference member in 2011 and 2012, but Michigan State won four of the next six from 2013 through 2023. Nebraska won the most recent contest last year in Lincoln.
Michigan State is just 3-6 against the spread since 2011, with one upset win in 2023 and a one-point upset loss in Lincoln during the 2015 College Football Playoff season.
Overall, the Big Ten era of this series has been highly competitive. The largest opening point spread was last year's 11.5-point line, and six of the past eight games have been decided by five points or fewer.
This year's line opened with the Spartans as 4.5-point home underdogs. Historically, this spread implies a 37.5% chance of an upset win.
On a sour note, my computer's final-score projection is similar to the opening Las Vegas line. My official prediction is Nebraska 27, Michigan State 23. In that scenario, the Spartans would cover, but only by a sliver.
The over/under for this game is 48.5. My computer suggests that the teams will combine for slightly more, so I recommend taking the over.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten's Week 4 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening point spreads, and the computers' projected margins.
Still hungry for more? Subscribe to Spartans Illustrated for the rest of Dr. Green and White’s Week 4 menu, including Big Ten projections, national upset picks, selections against the spread, and recommended point-total bets.
