Bad Betting Advice, Week 5: Into the Wild

Just a few weeks ago, Michigan State’s season seemed young and full of optimism. Even after a closer-than-expected loss at Notre Dame in Week 3, the future in East Lansing looked bright.

Then came a wild, dispiriting home loss to Nebraska. Add the news that starting running back Cam Edwards, Michigan State’s best offensive weapon, will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury, and Spartan Nation has been left disenchanted.

At times like these, it can help to pause, reflect, and get away from it all. Maybe the answer is to pack some gear into a magic bus and set forth for the wilds to the north and west.

That is where the Spartans are headed this week: into the wilds of Camp Randall to face a pack of ill-tempered members of the weasel family. A few weeks ago, this matchup looked manageable. After all, Michigan State gave Notre Dame a better fight than Wisconsin did when those teams met in Week 1.

But last week, the Badgers mounted a frantic comeback in State College and took down Penn State. Now that they have tasted Nittany Lion, the Badgers may be hungry for Greek food. A predator cannot survive on cheese alone.

The question is whether Michigan State is properly equipped to survive this adventure in the woods and fend off the territorial carnivores on their home turf. The Spartans showed toughness during the first month of the Pat Fitzgerald era, but with some gear damaged and key supplies left far behind, one has to wonder whether they have enough in reserve to make it through.

College football is a wild game, and sometimes a trip into the wilderness can awaken a team’s survival instincts. Wisconsin will arrive confident. Michigan State may arrive like a wounded animal, which could make the Spartans especially dangerous. A win by the home team is certainly not guaranteed.

Beating Wisconsin will be difficult, but if the Spartans survive the trip, the path ahead will suddenly look much brighter.

A third consecutive loss, however, would leave Michigan State wandering near the bottom of the Big Ten, with little to forage for as its bowl hopes dwindle and the weather turns cold.

Either way, the Spartans cannot stay in the wilderness forever. Saturday will tell us whether they are ready to rise and begin finding their way back home.

Can Michigan State End Its Two-Game Skid in Madison?

Michigan State and Wisconsin have met 55 times, with the Spartans holding a 32-23 series lead.

The teams met five times from 1913 through 1925, with Wisconsin winning four of the first five contests. The series resumed in 1954, after Michigan State joined the Big Ten. The Spartans dominated the next four decades, posting a 22-8 record.

Once Wisconsin coaching legend Barry Alvarez got the program rolling, however, the Badgers became a much more formidable opponent. Alvarez won four of six meetings from 1993 through 2000, beginning with a milestone victory over George Perles and the Spartans in Tokyo.

Since 2001, the series has been even, with seven wins apiece, while Michigan State holds a narrow 8-6 edge against the spread. None of those games carried a spread larger than 10 points, and half ended in upsets. That group includes Michigan State victories in Madison in 2001 and 2012, the latter marking the Spartans’ most recent road win in the series.

This year, the hometown Badgers are favored by 10 points, implying roughly a 23% chance of a Michigan State upset.

That matches the largest spread in the series this century, set when Michigan State last visited Madison in 2019. The Spartans lost that game 38-0.

Although the Spartans are reeling after two consecutive losses, I expect Fitzgerald to have them ready. I also expect some of the bad luck and bad bounces from the past two weeks to begin evening out.

At least to a degree, all three computer systems I track agree. Each projects Michigan State to cover the 10-point spread, although none predicts an outright upset.

My computer’s final score prediction is Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 21. That score also points to the over, with the total set at 44.5.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten’s Week 5 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and the computers’ projected margins.

I have updated the table so the color scheme identifies which computers are picking each team to cover. FPI is red, SP+ is blue, and my model is yellow. When two systems agree, the cell is purple, orange, or green. A black cell indicates a unanimous pick.

Upset picks appear in italics, while recommended picks against the spread appear in bold...

Beyond Madison, the betting wilderness gets even wilder. Subscribe to unlock the complete Week 5 field guide, including every upset pick, pick against the spread, and recommended point-total bet.