Best and worse case scenarios for Michigan State basketball down the stretch
Dr. Green and White breaks down all the possible Big Ten endgame scenarios and how they translate to Big Ten and NCAA Tournament seeding
With only four games left in the regular season, the Big Ten race is in the home stretch for the Michigan State Spartans. The calendar says that March is less than a week away, and MSU still has a lot to play for.
Followingly a humbling loss to the Wisconsin Badgers, the Spartans reeled off two straight wins over the UCLA Bruins and the Ohio State Buckeyes. Table 1 below shows the updated Big Ten enhanced standings as of the morning of Feb. 25.
Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standing as of Feb. 25.
The Spartans were not the only members of the Big Ten's upper echelon to take a loss over the past week or so. The Purdue Boilermakers lost at home to the Michigan Wolverines. The Nebraska Cornhuskers dropped a game at Iowa, and Illinois Fighting Illini blew a 23-point lead and lost to UCLA in overtime.
As a result, MSU is currently in a four-way tie in the loss column for second place. Michigan has a commanding three-game lead in the standings. The Wolverines officially clinched at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title on Tuesday night with a home win over Minnesota. There is only a two percent chance that any team will even tie Michigan.
The Spartans are not yet mathematically eliminated in the title race, but the odds are down to 1-in-270. Michigan State would need to run the table and have Michigan lose the next two road games at Illinois and at Iowa. For all intents and purposes, the Big Ten race is over.
So the focus for Michigan State fans turns to the postseason, starting with the Big Ten Tournament. Table 2 below gives the current odds for each team to earn each possible seed.
