One Play Short: An Autopsy of Michigan State’s Overtime Gamble

Michigan State is officially halfway through its first season under coach Pat Fitzgerald, and one thing is clear: He is aggressive, and he plays to win. Sometimes that approach will go his way, and sometimes it will not.

In the third quarter of Saturday’s game against Illinois, Fitzgerald opted to go for it on fourth-and-2 from the Illini 19-yard line with Michigan State trailing 23-7. Spartans quarterback Alessio Milivojevic completed a 13-yard pass to receiver Fredrick Moore, and for a moment, Michigan State appeared poised to make it a one-possession game.

A penalty erased the completion, and the Spartans were forced to attempt a field goal anyway. Still, the approach Fitzgerald brings to East Lansing is clear and refreshing.

He showed a similar spirit with 7:47 remaining in the game, when the Spartans dialed up a nearly perfect onside kick and came within a whisker of recovering the ball at midfield. That play did not go Michigan State’s way, either. A highly questionable offside penalty and one of the oddest, lengthiest reviews in recent college football history resulted in a five-yard penalty and a rekick.

That sequence ultimately did not affect the final score either. The Spartans’ defense forced a turnover on downs a little more than four minutes later, and the offense scored the tying touchdown two minutes after that.

It was Fitzgerald’s final aggressive decision that ultimately led to a one-point loss in overtime. After the Illini scored on one play in the first overtime period, the Spartans answered with a touchdown of their own.

Fitzgerald then put the game in the hands of a single 2-point conversion. The play failed, and Michigan State lost 38-37.

Michigan State Head coach Pat Fitzgerald stood by his decision to go for two points in the first overtime period against Illinois (Photo: Paul Fanson/Spartans Illustrated)

Fitzgerald made no apologies for this fateful decision.

“We ended up one play short—and that’s my call,” he said following the game. “I stood up here about six or seven weeks ago and said, ‘Scared money don’t make money.’ We felt good about the play. Credit to Illinois; they defended it. So, good for them.”

Was going for two in that situation the right decision? Kentucky beat South Carolina in overtime using the same strategy last week. The Wildcats did it again against LSU in overtime just a few hours after the Spartans’ game ended. The approach has worked for other teams.

The analytics in this situation are not definitive. FBS teams typically convert a 2-point attempt about 46% of the time. The underlying question is whether the Spartans had a better or worse than 46% chance to win if they had kicked the extra point and lived to play a second overtime period.

The argument for extending the game rests on several factors: Michigan State was at home, the teams were evenly matched, and Illinois was forced to turn to backup quarterback Michael Clayton after starter and former Spartan Katin Houser left in the third quarter with a reportedly broken hand.

For Fitzgerald the situation led to one clear conclusion.

“(It) was an easy decision,” he said. “We were so beat up on defense that going for two at the end was a no-brainer, frankly. We made that decision pretty quickly.”

His players very clearly were on the same page.

Milivojevic said he was confident the Spartans would score in the first overtime and certain that, if they did, they would try to win the game immediately.

“We had discussed it,” Milivojevic said. “It was 100 percent something that was going to happen. We trust our guys to win that game … We believe in ourselves.”

Even the defensive players agreed with the strategy to try to win the game on offense.

Junior defensive lineman Eli Coenen (left) and senior edge rusher Kenny Soares Jr. (right) stand by Fitzgerald "100%" (Photo: Paul Fanson/Spartans Illustrated)

“We didn’t come here to tie somebody, we came here to win,” edge rusher Kenny Soares Jr. said. “That’s what we play this game for—to win. Whatever Coach Fitz does, I’ve got his back tenfold, ten toes down, every single time.”

“I trust our head coach,” defensive lineman Eli Coenen echoed. “That’s all I’ve got to say.”

Boldness, aggression, and calculated risk-taking are part of the culture Fitzgerald is building, and his players are embracing it.

“When you have an aggressive natured team … you expect to go for it on fourth down and however long it is, and two-point conversions are expected,” Milivojevic said. “So, we're always going to expect to go and get those conversions.”

On the decisive play, the Spartans tried to fool the Illini by lining up in the wildcat formation with running back Marvis Parrish taking the snap. Instead of running, Parrish pitched the ball back to Milivojevic, who had lined up in the slot.

Milivojevic tried to find tight end Jayden Savoury, but Illinois had the play well covered. Milivojevic faced heavy pressure, and Savoury was blanketed well outside the end zone when the ball reached him.

Sophomore quarterback Alessio Milivojevic was confident the Spartans were going to go for the win once the overtime period started. (Photo: Paul Fanson/Spartans Illustrated)

Still, the coaches and players had faith in the play.

“We had a few calls we were thinking about, but this is one we’d had on our minds the entire week,” Milivojevic said. “Throughout the week, you go through two-point plays to win the game, and there’s always one you have at the top. That was the play we thought gave us the best chance.”

Fitzgerald agreed.

“We’ve got a bunch of plays ready,” he said. “That was the one we decided to go with.”

With the loss to Illinois, Michigan State has dropped four straight games and fallen to 2-4. The odds of reversing course in the second half of the season and earning bowl eligibility are fading fast.

Still, something feels different about this Michigan State team. This group has shown a grit that was noticeably absent over the past several years.

Despite the loss, the Spartans showed tremendous resilience by erasing an early 17-point deficit and tying the game in the fourth quarter. Fitzgerald’s demeanor and bold play-calling are reminiscent of the Mark Dantonio era of Michigan State football.

Dantonio’s boldness did not always pay off, either. But when his system was fully established and rolling, Michigan State was a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten and beyond.

In Year 1, these Spartans are severely banged up. Fitzgerald even joked that "We're getting a Ph.D. in next man up."

He has had to completely rebuild and remake this team. Fitzgerald may never reach Dantonio’s heights, but even in the modern NIL era of college football, sometimes progress simply takes time.

“I learned a long time ago the analogy of priming the pump,” he said. “I’ve got a well at my house in Okemos, so you’ve got to let the water run a little bit. You’ve got to prime the pump. You don’t know how deep the water is, but you keep pumping and pumping, just like we’re trying to do right now to get that water to flow. That water is indicative of winning games.”

Those wins may not come this year. The well may simply be too deep. But Fitzgerald does not seem to know the meaning of “quit,” and neither do his players.

“The team isn’t going to back down,” Milivojevic said. “We’re going to continue to fire (and) continue to pound the rock. Like Coach was saying, it is going to eventually break. I think we saw parts of it breaking today. We just need to go ahead and finish on that two-point play.”