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football analytics Articles
Against All Odds, Week 8: String Theory
Injuries put Michigan State’s “next man up” theory to the test as Dr. Green and White untangles the Spartans’ bowl hopes, Big Ten race, and playoff picture.
Against All Odds, 2026 Week 6: Still Ill? (Reprise)
Michigan State is still ill after a heartbreaking loss to Illinois, but a spirited comeback suggests there is a light that never goes out. Dr. Green and White sorts through the rubble and examines the Spartans’ fading bowl hopes.
One Play Short: An autopsy of Michigan State’s overtime gamble
The decision to go for the win in overtime left Michigan State with a 38-37 loss, but the conviction behind it could be a sign of better things to come.
Against All Odds, Week 5: Misery
Michigan State’s season has taken a frightening turn, but the numbers suggest the Spartans may still have a path out of their misery and into the postseason
Against All Odds, Week 4: Stop Me if You Think You’ve Heard This One Before
Another familiar Michigan State loss leaves Dr. Green and White in a melancholy mood as he reviews the Week 4 betting results and updates the Big Ten and national college football picture.
Against All Odds, 2026 Week 3: Glasses in Various Stages of Fullness
Michigan State showed signs of progress at Notre Dame, while Dr. Green and White reviews Week 3 betting results and updates the Spartans’ Big Ten, bowl, and playoff odds.
Bad Betting Advice, Week 3: Four Leaf Clover
Dr. Green and White previews Michigan State’s long-shot visit to Notre Dame and uses computer projections to identify the best Week 3 upsets, spread picks, and point-total bets.
Against All Odds, Week 1: Feeling Strangely Fine
Michigan State’s season-opening win, a historic upset, and encouraging betting results leave Dr. Green and White feeling a little better than just OK
2026 College Football Preview by the Numbers, Part 7: Projecting the Playoff Bracket
Using preseason simulations, conference title projections and strength-based power ratings, we build a 12-team College Football Playoff bracket for the 2026 season and follow it all the way to a projected national champion.
2026 College Football Preview by the Numbers, Part 6: Group of Six Playoff Race
A math-driven preview of the 2026 Group of Six conference races, projecting title-game matchups, playoff odds, and the teams most likely to claim the final automatic College Football Playoff bid.
2026 College Football Preview by the Numbers, Part 5: The SEC, Big 12, and ACC Races
A numbers-driven look at the SEC, Big 12 and ACC title races, including projected conference champions, key games, playoff odds, and Notre Dame’s path to the postseason.
2026 College Football Preview by the Numbers, Part 4: Forecasting the Big Ten Race
A numbers-driven look at the Big Ten contenders, chaos scenarios, and upset paths that could shape the road to Indianapolis.
2026 College Football Preview by the Numbers, Part 3: Big Ten Odds and Strength of Schedule
A data-driven breakdown of Big Ten schedule strength, projected win totals, and the teams most likely to contend in 2026.
2026 College Football Preview by the Numbers, Part 2: Projecting Michigan State's 2026 Season
Breaking down every game on Michigan State's 2026 schedule to uncover the most realistic paths to six wins and bowl eligibility.