As the Michigan State Spartans football team prepares to face Notre Dame's shamrock-loving Fighting Irish, Spartans fans will likely see more than a few references to four-leaf clovers this weekend.

My model currently ranks Michigan State No. 46 and Notre Dame No. 1 in my latest power poll. As a result, the Spartans' chances of leaving South Bend with a victory are slim. Still, the four-leaf clover offers a useful framework for imagining how an upset might happen.

The four leaves of a four-leaf clover traditionally represent faith, hope, love, and luck. If the Spartans are to pull off this upset, they will likely need all four.

The first leaf represents faith, which in this case means trust in brighter days. With the arrival of new coach Pat Fitzgerald and generally positive results through two weeks, Spartans fans have reason to believe better days are on the horizon.

The second leaf represents hope, or optimism and the courage to look forward. If the Spartans are to have a chance Saturday night, they must first believe.

Based on my observations of Fitzgerald and his interactions with his players, I expect the Spartans to take the field believing they can win, regardless of the odds.

The third leaf represents love, or connection and care for others. In football terms, the Spartans must communicate, trust one another, and play as one unit.

The fourth leaf represents luck, or rare and unexpected fortune breaking your way. Faith, hope, and love matter in a potential upset, but let's be honest: Michigan State will almost certainly need a little luck, and probably a lot of it.

If the Spartans win the turnover battle, benefit from a couple of favorable bounces, deliver on special teams, and get most of the 50-50 calls, their chances rise substantially.

Fans at home can help, too. Dust off those rabbits' feet, turn the horseshoes upright, drop a coin into the wishing well, and make sure that lucky pair of socks (you know the ones) is clean and ready.

If all else fails, the three leaves of the more common shamrock traditionally symbolize the Christian Trinity. If you are so inclined, a little prayer may be in order, too.

In a matchup like this, every little bit helps.

Can Michigan State Pull Off a Huge Upset in South Bend?

Saturday night marks the 80th meeting in the Michigan State-Notre Dame rivalry and the Spartans' first chance to reclaim the Megaphone Trophy since 2017. Only Purdue (89 games), USC (96), and Navy (98) have faced the Fighting Irish more often. Michigan, at 118 meetings, is the only opponent Michigan State has played more frequently than Notre Dame.

Michigan State is 29-49-1 all time against the Fighting Irish. USC (38) is the only program with more victories over Notre Dame than Michigan State, while Michigan is the only program with more all-time wins over the Spartans than the Irish.

The rivalry's history has featured plenty of swings in fortune.

Notre Dame dominated the early phase of the rivalry, going 13-2 against Michigan State from 1897 through 1921. When the series resumed in 1948, the Spartans quickly gained the upper hand, posting a 13-8-1 record through 1968. That stretch included the famous 10-10 tie in the 1966 "Game of the Century."

The tables turned from 1969 through 1994, when the Irish again dominated the Green and White. Notre Dame won 20 of the 24 meetings in that span.

After a brief hiatus, the series resumed in 1997. Michigan State is 11-8 since then, although the Spartans have lost four of the past five meetings dating to 2011.

Michigan State has covered the spread in nine of the past 15 meetings. Still, the line has rarely exceeded 10 points since 2001. The opening spread of Notre Dame minus 29.5 is the largest in my rivalry database. The second-largest came in 2009, when Notre Dame was favored by 11 points.

Historically, a spread that large gives Michigan State a little less than a 2% chance to win in South Bend. For context, that is only slightly better than the average No. 16 seed's chance of beating a No. 1 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament.

Then again, UMass faced a similar challenge when it visited Rutgers as a 30.5-point underdog and left with a 37-21 victory. Michigan State's estimated chances are also about 100 times better than the odds of finding a four-leaf clover in the wild. Spartans fans have that going for them, too.

Can lightning strike twice? Absolutely. Will it strike twice?

Unfortunately, my heartless computer does not think so. Its official prediction is Notre Dame 39, Michigan State 11.

In other words, the computer favors the Spartans to cover the spread by the narrowest margin. It also favors the under at 53.5 points.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten's Week 3 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening point spreads, and the computers' projected margins.

Want the rest of Dr. Green and White’s Week 3 picks? Subscribe to Spartans Illustrated for the complete Big Ten and national breakdown, including 13 projected upsets, 22 picks against the spread, nine point-total bets, and the computer models’ most confident selections.