Saturday night’s result left me conflicted. The Michigan State Spartans went on the road to face No. 3 Notre Dame and lost by double digits. A little more than 10 years ago, that would have felt like a tremendous opportunity lost.

Plenty has changed over the past decade. The Spartans have had four head coaches and made only four bowl appearances during that span. The program has fallen on hard times, and Saturday’s loss was another reminder that Michigan State still does not measure up to the nation’s best teams.

Despite those realities, I could not help feeling encouraged by the performance.

The Spartans entered as nearly 30-point underdogs but lost by 17. Early in the fourth quarter, Michigan State had the ball near midfield, trailing 20-10 and driving with a chance to make it a one-score game.

That represents significant improvement from the last several times Michigan State faced elite competition. Consider the Spartans’ deficits after three quarters:

• 2025 vs. No. 3 Indiana: 35-10

• 2024 vs. No. 3 Ohio State: 38-7

• 2023 vs. No. 1 Ohio State: 38-3

• 2023 vs. No. 2 Michigan: 42-0

• 2022 vs. No. 4 Michigan: 19-7

• 2022 vs. No. 3 Ohio State: 38-7

Across those six games, the Spartans faced an average deficit of 28.2 points after three quarters.

The game could have been closer still. The Spartans lost the turnover battle by two, allowed two fourth-down conversions, committed two costly pass-interference penalties, dropped a wide-open touchdown pass, and had multiple starters helped off the field by medical personnel.

Yet they still covered the spread by more than 10 points. All things considered, that is borderline incredible.

I have always been a glass-half-full kind of guy. No one can feel truly good about a loss, but I cannot help feeling optimistic about the future. Spartans fans can take hope that, under Pat Fitzgerald, the program finally appears to be pointed in the right direction.

On Saturday night, the Spartans looked like a tough, well-coached team that caught few breaks and played with a sizable talent deficit. As Fitzgerald continues to stabilize and build the program, that gap should shrink.

The glass is nowhere near full, but for the first time in years, Michigan State appears to be adding water instead of springing leaks.

Week 3 Betting Results

It is time to review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with the overview in Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read the figure, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Week 3 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Eight teams overachieved in Week 3, including Northwestern, Oregon, Wisconsin, Duke, and Iowa.

From a glass-half-empty perspective, MSU still must face three of those eight teams.

Five teams notably underachieved but still won, including USC, Boston College, Missouri, and Cal.

Eight favorites lost outright in Week 3, well below the 12.5 upsets projected by my computer.

Table 1 summarizes the eight upsets and compares them with last week’s picks.

Table 1: Week 3 upsets based on the opening line, compared with last week's upset projections.

The week’s biggest upset was Kentucky (+15) over Texas A&M on the road. Other notable upsets included West Virginia (+9.5) over Virginia, Mississippi State (+4) over South Carolina, and Ole Miss (+2.5) over LSU.

My algorithm had another rough week, going 3-8 (27%) on upset picks. That dropped its season record to 7-15 (32%), below the random-number benchmark of 36%.

FPI went 1-5 (17%) on upset picks, bringing its season record to 2-8 (20%). SP+ went 1-1 (50%) in Week 3 but is also a disappointing 2-8 (20%) for the season.

Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread.

 Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 3 picks against the opening spread.

My computer went 3-3 (50%) on its recommended against-the-spread picks, bringing the season record to 7-15 (32%). I am optimistic that it will improve as the season progresses, but it must first climb out of the well it fell into in Week 2.

FPI went 6-7 (46%) and is 13-13 (50%) for the season. SP+ fared much better at 4-2 (67%), but its overall glass remains slightly less than half full at 16-17 (48.5%).

Across all 75 games, my algorithm went 37-38 (49%) ATS, FPI went 34-41 (45%), and SP+ went 41-23 (55%). For the season, my computer is 126-134 (48.5%) against the spread, FPI is 129-131 (49.6%), and SP+ is 131-129 (50.4%).

Table 3 shows the Week 3 point-total results.

Table 3: Results of the recommended Week 3 point-total wagers

I was optimistic before the season that my revised methodology for point-total recommendations would improve the results. So far, that optimism has been warranted.

This week, my machine went 5-4 (56%) on point-total bets, bringing its season record to 22-18 (55%). SP+ again made no point-total recommendations, leaving its season record at 5-3 (62.5%). 

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

After Week 3, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 4 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 5 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.

All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.

Want to know where Michigan State now stands in the Big Ten race and how many wins remain in the Spartans’ glass? Subscribe to Spartans Illustrated for updated conference odds, bowl and playoff probabilities, projected spreads for every remaining MSU game, and a look at the national postseason picture.