Against All Odds, 2026 Week 6: Still Ill? (Reprise)
Michigan State is still ill after a heartbreaking loss to Illinois, but a spirited comeback suggests there is a light that never goes out. Dr. Green and White sorts through the rubble and examines the Spartans’ fading bowl hopes.
There are plenty of analogies for the 2026 Michigan State football team. Most recently, I compared the struggling Spartans to an ailing patient who appeared to be recovering from a temporary illness. I expected them to play well Saturday and beat the visiting Fighting Illini.
Halfway through the second quarter, I was prepared to declare the patient deceased. The Spartans trailed Illinois 17-0. Their offense had run exactly six plays and possessed the ball for less than four minutes. Illinois had outgained Michigan State 216-8.
Spartan Stadium felt like a funeral home. At best, the Spartans were still ill.
Then, beginning with Michigan State's third drive, the momentum turned. From that point through the end of regulation, the Spartans outgained Illinois 279-190 and outscored the Fighting Illini 31-14.
More important was the fight the Spartans showed. They scratched, clawed, and chipped away at the Illinois lead. When the Illini answered in the fourth quarter with a seven-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to restore a two-possession margin, Michigan State did not fold. The Spartans marched down the field for a touchdown of their own to keep the game within reach.
That passion and grit were not limited to the players. Coach Pat Fitzgerald and his staff continued to dial up aggressive, creative plays, including an onside kick that should have worked if not for a bad call and a bizarre sequence of reviews by the officials.
The sequence only added fuel to the fire. Fitzgerald was animated on the sideline, firing up the crowd and his players. He even unveiled a distinctive hand signal to convey his opinion of the final ruling.
For better or worse, it is impossible to imagine Jonathan Smith flipping the officials the bird. For a lot of Spartans fans, this was confirmation that the right man is on the sideline to lead the Green and White.
In the end, however, Michigan State finished one play short of a homecoming victory. The Spartans are 2-4, and, as we will see later, their postseason prospects are headed nowhere fast.
Spartans fans have returned to their favorite emo corner of Spotify to drown their sorrows. Too many Sundays over the past few years have been silent and gray. Four straight losses feel like a spit in the eye.
Yes, the current state of Michigan State football is depressing. Yet, despite the loss, the final 38 minutes still gave me hope. Maybe it is just me, but even the most melancholy song can lift the spirits in an odd, ironic way. There are brighter sides to football, even if we have not seen them very often over the last few years.
When it comes to 2026, I could argue that I know it's over. We cannot cling to the old dreams anymore. But Saturday night offered a glimpse of a brighter long-term future under Fitzgerald, and I suspect plenty of Spartans fans saw it, too.
When it comes to Spartans fandom, there is a light that never goes out. There is no reason to panic.
Week 6 Betting Results
Let us review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with the overview in Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read the figure, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds.
Figure 1: Week 6 results, showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.
Twelve teams overachieved in Week 6, including Oregon State, Ole Miss, Wake Forest, Arizona, Western Michigan, Missouri, Louisville, and Notre Dame.
No teams notably underachieved and still won. As in Week 5, every significant underachiever lost outright.
For the second straight week, there were more upsets than expected. That follows an odd four-week stretch with a notable shortage of surprises. There have been 74 upsets relative to the opening spread this season, still slightly below the expected total of 79.7 through Week 6.
Table 1 summarizes the 19 upsets that took place this week and compares them with last week’s picks.
Table 1: Week 6 upsets based on the opening line, compared with last week's upset projections.
The week's biggest upsets were Buffalo (+18) over Toledo, South Carolina (+14.5) over Florida, UCLA (+12.5) over Oregon, Oklahoma (+10.5) over Texas, Kentucky (+10) over LSU, Georgia Tech (+6.5) over Duke, Purdue (+4.5) over Minnesota, North Carolina (+3.5) over Pittsburgh, Iowa (+2.5) over Washington, Houston (+2.5) over Kansas State, and Georgia (+1.5) over Alabama.
My algorithm had another strong week, going 6-7 (46%) and improving its season record to 24-33 (42%).
FPI (2-3) and SP+ (3-2) also had strong weeks. FPI is now 12-14 (46%) for the season, while SP+ is 10-15 (40%). Percentage-wise, my benchmark systems are performing well, but my computer has produced at least twice as many correct picks.
Table 2 shows the three systems’ results against the opening spread.
Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 6 picks against the opening spread.
My computer went 3-1 (75%) for the week, pushing its season record above .500 at 20-18 (53%). FPI got its lone pick correct to move to 22-26 (46%), while SP+ split its two picks and stands at an impressive 23-18 (56%).
Across all 58 FBS games on this week's playlist, my computer went just 27-31 (47%), while FPI (33-25, 57%) and SP+ (34-24, 59%) fared much better.
For the season, my computer is just below .500 at 223-225 (50%). FPI is slightly better at 229-219 (51%), and SP+ leads the trio at 239-209 (53%).
As mentioned in Bad Betting Advice, there were no official point total bets on the board this week.
For the full slate, my computer went just 26-32 (45%) for the week, while SP+ performed much better at 33-25 (57%). For the season, both systems have identical 186-195 (49%) records.
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
After Week 6, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 3 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 4 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.
All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.
What difference does it make from here? Subscribe to Spartans Illustrated to unlock Dr. Green and White’s updated Big Ten projections, Michigan State’s shrinking bowl odds, the Spartans’ path to six wins, and the latest College Football Playoff forecast.
