So far in this year's math-driven college football preview, we have reviewed the results from 2025, taken a close look at the schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, and analyzed several scenarios in the Big Ten race.

In today's installment, let's take a quick look at the races in the other three power conferences and make some predictions about which teams are most likely to earn automatic bids to the 12-team College Football Playoff.

SEC Overview and Prediction

Similar to the analysis done for the Big Ten, Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the SEC race, including the consensus preseason rank of each team, two sets of projected final records, strength-of-schedule data, and the odds for each team to make and win the SEC Championship Game and to make and win the 12-team playoff.

Table 1: Summary of the preseason projections for the SEC conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.

From top to bottom, the SEC is once again considered the top conference in the nation. SEC teams occupy four spots in the top 10 and exactly half of the top 12. A total of nine SEC teams start the season ranked in the top 20 nationally.

The raw odds suggest that preseason No. 4 Texas (19.3%) and No. 5 Georgia (18.6%) have the best odds to win the conference championship game. The fact that both teams are ranked in the top five nationally and own two of the six easiest conference schedules certainly helps.

Despite what the math says, the Longhorns have tough games on the road against No. 8 Texas A&M (+0.2), at No. 12 LSU (+3.2), at No. 18 Tennessee (+6.6), and the semi-home game in Dallas against No. 9 Oklahoma (+6.5).

Georgia's schedule, which ranks as the second easiest in the SEC behind only Vanderbilt, includes road games at No. 11 Alabama (+1.5), at No. 13 Ole Miss (+2.8), and a home game against No. 9 Oklahoma (+7.2).

Beyond the Longhorns and Bulldogs, No. 8 Texas A&M (10.5%), No. 9 Oklahoma (9.7%), and No. 11 Alabama (8.9%) make up the group of teams most likely to crash the SEC title-game party. But both Texas A&M and Oklahoma have schedules ranked in the top five in conference difficulty.

No. 12 LSU (7.4%), No. 13 Ole Miss (6.7%), No. 18 Tennessee (4.7%), and No. 20 Florida (3.8%) are the SEC dark horse contenders.

Just as in my analysis of the Big Ten, the Most Likely Scenario is the one in which the projected favorite wins every conference game. If this were to happen, Georgia and Texas would both run the table in conference play to finish 9-0. Texas would be a very narrow favorite to edge the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game in this scenario.

In the Disruptive Scenario, the conference race plays out a little differently. This scenario is designed to inject a historically reasonable number of road upsets into the analysis. Practically speaking, especially in the SEC, this tends to produce a bloodbath in which ranked teams beat up on each other at home. But the results of the exercise are still informative.

As Table 1 shows, the Disruptive Scenario predicts a tie between Georgia and Alabama at 7-2. In this scenario, the Bulldogs lose two road games at Alabama and Ole Miss. Alabama beats Georgia but loses on the road at Tennessee (+0.4) and at LSU (-3).

Georgia projects to be a five-point favorite on the neutral field over Alabama and is therefore my pick to win the SEC this year.

Not coincidentally, the pair of teams that my Disruptive Scenario selects to share the regular-season title have two of the four easiest conference schedules. That said, the eventual SEC champion will likely get there by protecting its home field and by stealing a win—or avoiding an upset—on the road.

Based on this assumption, here is a list of the highest-impact SEC conference games this season with my projected point spreads. The 12 projected road upsets by contenders in the Disruptive Scenario are shown in italics:

9/19: LSU at Ole Miss (-3)
9/26: Oklahoma at Georgia (-7.2)
9/26: Texas at Tennessee (+6.6)
9/26: Texas A&M at LSU (-0.6)
9/26: Ole Miss at Florida (pick'em)
10/10: Georgia at Alabama (+1.5)
10/10: LSU at Vanderbilt (+3.7)
10/10: Oklahoma vs. Texas (-6.5)
10/10: Texas A&M at Missouri (+5.8)
10/17: Alabama at Tennessee (+0.4)
10/24: Texas A&M at Alabama (-1.3)
10/24: LSU at Auburn (+3.6)
11/7: Alabama at LSU (-3)
11/7: Texas A&M at South Carolina (+6.4)
11/7: Georgia at Ole Miss (+2.8)
11/7: Oklahoma at Florida (+2.8)
11/14: Texas at LSU (+3.2)
11/14: Ole Miss at Oklahoma (-6.5)
11/21: Texas A&M at Oklahoma (-2.8)
11/21: LSU at Tennessee (-0.3)
11/28: Oklahoma at Missouri (-4.9)
11/28: Texas at Texas A&M (+0.2)
11/28: Tennessee at Vanderbilt (+1)

The simulation also suggests that the expected number of SEC teams to make the College Football Playoff is 3.9. The odds that an SEC team wins the national title are 36%.

Big 12 Overview and Prediction

Table 2 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the Big 12 race in the same format used in Table 1 above.

Table 2: Summary of the preseason projections for the Big 12 conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.

Similar to the SEC, the Big 12 has two teams that are separated from the rest of the pack in the preseason projections. No. 10 Texas Tech has a 26.8% chance to win the conference. No. 16 BYU has a 16.1% chance, and no other team has conference title odds above 10%.

Both teams also happen to own the two easiest conference schedules, due at least in part to the fact that they do not have to play themselves.

No. 24 Utah (9.4%) is the only other Big 12 team to appear in the consensus preseason top 25. The Utes, along with No. 27 Houston (7.5%), No. 30 Arizona (6.7%), No. 36 Kansas State (5.9%), and No. 37 TCU (5.3%) make up the group of potential Big 12 sleepers.

Projecting the Big 12 race is very straightforward. All three ways of looking at the race give the same result: Texas Tech (-3.8) defeats BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Texas Tech is projected to be favored in all 12 regular-season games and is projected to finish 9-0 in the Most Likely Scenario. The only two games on the Red Raiders' schedule where the projected line is under 10 points are road games at No. 44 Oklahoma State (+8.5) and at No. 48 Baylor (+9.3).

As for BYU, in the Most Likely Scenario, the Cougars are projected to lose on the road at Utah (-0.3) and to win a close road game at TCU (+3.2), finishing conference play at 8-1 and alone in second place.

Utah (7-2) projects to finish tied for third place, with losses at No. 30 Arizona (-1.9) and at No. 37 TCU (-0.2).

Kansas State (7-2) projects to take losses at No. 43 Arizona State (-2.1) and at TCU (-3.4). The Wildcats are an intriguing team due to their third-easiest conference schedule. Kansas State avoids Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah, and its third-toughest conference game is at No. 58 Cincinnati (+1.3).

Oddly, the Disruptive Scenario projects only three total surprise upsets, and none involve a team in the top half of the conference. Drama is certain to strike the Big 12 race, but its origin is particularly difficult to spot this year.

That said, another interesting Big 12 sleeper is TCU. The Horned Frogs have the second-toughest conference schedule, which includes a highly likely road loss at Texas Tech. But TCU draws Utah, BYU, and Kansas State all at home.

If the Horned Frogs can steal a road victory at Arizona (-5.3), they could contend for a conference title-game appearance simply by protecting home field.

The most impactful conference games are expected to be:

9/12: Arizona at BYU (-8.8)
9/19: Houston at Texas Tech (-11.8)
10/3: BYU at TCU (+3.2)
10/10: Houston at Kansas State (-1.4)
10/17: TCU at Baylor (-1.3)
10/24: Houston at Utah (-4.6)
10/24: Kansas State at Arizona State (-2.1)
10/31: Arizona at Texas Tech (-12.6)
11/7: TCU at Arizona (-5.3)
11/7: BYU at Utah (-0.3)
11/14: Utah at Arizona (-1.9)
11/14: Kansas State at TCU (-3.4)
11/21: Arizona at Kansas State (-2.2)
11/21: Utah at TCU (-0.2)
11/28: TCU at Texas Tech (-14.2)

The simulation also suggests that the expected number of Big 12 teams to make the College Football Playoff is 1.59. The odds that a Big 12 team wins the national title are 7.4%.

ACC Overview and Prediction

Table 3 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the ACC race in the same format used in Table 1 and Table 2 above.

Table 3: Summary of the preseason projections for the ACC conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.

Of all the teams in the four power conferences, No. 7 Miami is the most likely to find success in conference play. The Hurricanes have just over a 50% chance to reach the ACC Championship Game and a 32.7% chance to claim the conference crown.

The raw odds suggest that No. 21 SMU (10.8%), No. 23 Clemson (9.4%), and No. 25 Louisville (9.1%) are the most likely challengers for the ACC Championship.

Beyond the top four is a group of six dark horse contenders with conference odds between 4% and 6%. This group consists of No. 31 Virginia Tech (5.7%), No. 40 Virginia (4.4%), No. 38 Florida State (4.4%), No. 41 Georgia Tech (4.2%), No. 39 Pittsburgh (4.1%), and No. 46 North Carolina State (3.8%).

If all the current favorites were to run the table, both Miami and Louisville would finish conference play undefeated at 9-0. In this scenario, Miami would be favored to win the ACC Championship Game by 10 points.

In the Disruptive Scenario, Miami loses a close game on the road at Clemson (+5.7) to finish at 8-1. Louisville similarly drops a road game at Georgia Tech (+0.3) to also finish at 8-1. Although Clemson has the win over the Hurricanes, the Tigers also take an upset road loss at Florida State (+0.4) to finish the regular season at 7-1.

This situation highlights one of the stranger new potential tiebreaker scenarios in all of Division I. Starting this year, the ACC moved to a nine-game conference schedule, sort of. The problem is that there are 17 teams in the ACC, and it is mathematically impossible for a league with an odd number of teams to play a schedule in which every team plays an odd number of conference games.

So, five ACC teams, namely Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, North Carolina, and Boston College, only play eight conference games this year.

As a result, the ACC had to modify the tiebreaker procedure to define tied teams as teams that have either the same number of wins or the same number of losses as the team or teams with the highest overall winning percentage.

In the disruptive scenario, Miami (8-1) and Louisville (8-1) have the highest win percentage, but Clemson (7-1) is considered tied for first place since all three teams have just one loss.

The primary tiebreaker is head-to-head performance, but it only comes into play if the tied teams all played one another in the regular season. Louisville does not face either Miami or Clemson, so the next tiebreaker is the College Football Playoff ranking.

For my purposes, I will assume that the College Football Playoff rankings will mirror the preseason power rankings. Based on this assumption, Miami would face Clemson in the ACC title game.

My calculations suggest that the Hurricanes would be favored to beat the Tigers by nine points on a neutral field. So Miami is my official pick to win the ACC Championship.

Interestingly, No. 21 SMU is on the outside looking in in both the Most Likely and Disruptive Scenarios despite being the second-highest-ranked ACC team in the preseason, with the second-best raw conference odds and the second-weakest conference schedule.

Despite these advantages, the Mustangs draw Louisville (-2.2) and Florida State (+1.1) both on the road, giving them just enough losses in both scenarios to miss out on the ACC Championship Game. That said, both contests will take place in September, so we will learn quickly whether SMU is likely to contend for the ACC crown.

Here are the ACC conference games most likely to impact the league race:

9/5: SMU at Florida State (+1.1)
9/19: SMU at Louisville (-2.2)
10/3: Miami at Clemson (+5.7)
10/31: Miami at Florida State (+0.4)
11/7: Louisville at Georgia Tech (+0.3)

The simulation also suggests that the expected number of ACC teams to make the College Football Playoff is 1.65. The odds that an ACC team wins the national title are 8.8%.

What About Notre Dame?

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish remain independent but maintain a schedule that includes one Big 12 team, three Big Ten teams, and six ACC teams. The Irish enter the year ranked No. 3 in the nation and are a serious national title contender.

Despite the large number of Power Four teams on the schedule, Notre Dame's overall strength of schedule is just No. 60 nationally, which is just slightly more difficult than Penn State's remarkably soft slate.

The Irish project to be favored in all 12 regular-season games, but there are a few potential pitfalls along the way involving several of the Power Four contenders listed above.

The toughest game on the Notre Dame schedule currently appears to be a road game at BYU (+6.7) at the end of a stretch of seven consecutive games. My Disruptive Scenario predicts an upset loss for the Irish in Provo.

Notre Dame also has homes games against ACC contenders Miami (+7.7) and SMU (+16.2) which rank as the second and third toughest games on the schedule. But Notre Dame projects as at least a 17-point favorite in the nine other games on the schedule.

Overall, I predict an 11-1 record for Notre Dame, which would almost certainly earn the Irish a spot in the playoff. My simulation puts Notre Dame's odds to reach the playoff at 54.5%.

Now that we have thoroughly investigated the Power Four conference races, the next step in this preseason journey is the Group of Six conferences. Stay tuned.

Also, check out the previous articles in this series: