Against All Odds, Week 4: Stop Me if You Think You’ve Heard This One Before

Upon reflection, Michigan State’s 17-point loss to Nebraska on Saturday evening gave me a distinct feeling of déjà vu. I entered the game optimistic that the Green and White could keep it competitive and give themselves a solid chance to win. I exited the stadium feeling a bit depressed.

This Michigan State team has little margin for error. To compete with even a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team, the Spartans must be sharp and must win most of the 50-50 plays.

Quite the opposite happened.

Instead, the Spartans were once again hampered by bad bounces, including an 11-yard forward fumble that gave Nebraska a first down, momentum-killing questionable calls, turnovers, and another wave of injuries to key players.

All four factors mattered, and together they turned what could, or perhaps should, have been a competitive game into a borderline blowout at home.

But we have all been down this road before. Over the past decade, Michigan State has found a nearly infinite number of strange ways to lose football games. As a result, the record book shows a growing collection of four- and five-win seasons with no postseason appearances.

This weekend felt like it could be the turning point Spartan fans have awaited for half a decade. Instead, it feels like nothing has changed. It was the same old story of bad luck and disappointment. That joke isn’t funny anymore.

I firmly believe Pat Fitzgerald is the right coach to lead the Spartans. Then again, I also believed that about Jonathan Smith and Mel Tucker. Every time a new charming man arrives in East Lansing, the feeling is that this time things will turn around. But it is fair to ask, “How soon is now?”

By nature, I am both optimistic and patient. I believe Michigan State will find its way back to the upper half of the Big Ten sooner rather than later. It is not time to panic.

Still, memories of the Spartans’ glory years under Mark Dantonio grow more distant. The explanations, however valid, are starting to sound a little too familiar. Stop me if you think you’ve heard this one before.

Week 4 Betting Results

It is time to review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with the overview in Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read the figure, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Week 4 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Sixteen teams overachieved in Week 4, including UCLA, Toledo, Florida, James Madison, LSU, Arkansas, Virginia, Boise State, and Georgia.

Five teams notably underachieved but still won, including SMU, Indiana, Tulane, and Florida State.

Ten favored teams lost outright in Week 4, again fewer than the 14.6 upsets projected by my computer.

Table 1 summarizes the 10 upsets and compares them with last week’s picks.

Table 1: Week 4 upsets based on the opening line, compared with last week’s upset projections.

The week’s biggest upsets were Wake Forest (+13) over Louisville, Wisconsin (+9.5) over Penn State, Minnesota (+9) over Washington, Cincinnati (+6.5) over Kansas State, Iowa (+4.5) over Michigan, UCF (+3) over TCU, and Oklahoma State (+1.5) over West Virginia. Obviously, some upsets are bigger than others.

My algorithm had another rough week, going 1-7 (12.5%) on upset picks. That dropped its season record to 8-22 (23%), a historic low for my computer. My methodology for upset picks is usually the most reliable of all of my betting metrics, but heaven knows it’s miserable now.

But the other computers are doing no better. FPI went 1-2 (33%) on upset picks, bringing its season record to 3-10 (23%). SP+ went 1-5 (17%) in Week 4, bringing its season tally to 3-13 (19%).

Overall, the low number of upsets this season and the computers’ collective failure to predict them represent an odd but likely related turn of events. It really is strange.

Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 4 picks against the opening spread.

Here, the performance was quite a bit better.

My computer went 3-1 (75%) on its recommended picks against the spread, but its 10-16 (38.5%) season record remains a bit depressing.

FPI went 4-4 (50%) and is 17-17 (50%) for the season. SP+ was 1-0 for the week, bringing its year-to-date mark to .500 at 17-17.

Across all 71 games, my algorithm went 38-33 (53.5%) ATS, FPI went 37-34 (52%), and SP+ went 38-33 (53.5%). For the season, my computer is 164-167 (49.5%), FPI is 166-165 (50.2%), and SP+ is 169-162 (51.1%).

Table 3 shows the Week 4 point-total results.

Table 3: Results of the recommended Week 4 point-total wagers.

This week, my machine went 3-3 (50%) on point-total bets, bringing its season record to 25-21 (54%). SP+ got its only recommended pick correct, thanks to a late Iowa touchdown that clinched the upset over Michigan. SP+ is now 6-3 (67%) for the season on its curated set of over/under picks.

Both computers were 28-30 (48%) on the full set of total bets this week. SP+ is currently leading my computer on overall over/under bets by three games, 133-134 (49.8%) to 130-137 (48.7%) year-to-date.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

After Week 4, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 4 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 5 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.

All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.

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