Bad Betting Advice, Week 8: California Dreaming

Autumn has settled over Michigan, and the leaves are starting to turn brown. As for the Michigan State Spartans’ prospects, the sky has turned from blue to gray.

The supposedly friendly confines of Spartan Stadium have been anything but over the past month. Maybe it is time a change of scenery. Maybe it is time for a trip somewhere safe and warm.

How about L.A.? California. That sounds nice.

Back in the summer, when Spartan fans still dreamed of a turnaround season, the late-October trip to face the UCLA Bruins at iconic Rose Bowl Stadium seemed challenging but winnable.

Five straight losses have made those summer dreams feel increasingly distant. UCLA’s 6-0 start and top 10 ranking make Michigan State’s task this week even more daunting.

For some Spartan fans, this meeting carries special meaning. As a college football fan growing up in the Midwest in the 1980s, Pasadena and the Rose Bowl had a special place my heart. Before the days of the College Football Playoff or even the Bowl Championship Series, the Rose Bowl was the end-all, be-all of Big Ten football.

Every Jan. 1 in my mama and papa’s house, we watched the Rose Parade, then the Granddaddy of Them All: the Rose Bowl Game. Getting there meant you were the best team in the Big Ten. Winning felt like claiming the national championship.

For years, we dreamed of Michigan State reaching this college football promised land. On Jan. 1, 1988, George Perles led the Green and White there and came home triumphant.

That year, my family considered making the trip to Pasadena, but my father decided that we would "just go the next time MSU makes it." Little did we know that we would have to wait 26 years.

But the day did come.

On Jan. 1, 2014, Mark Dantonio led the Spartans back to Pasadena and again returned home as Rose Bowl champions. Dreams were fulfilled once more. The Spartans were back among college football’s elite.

Those dreams are fading, but the Spartans are returning to Pasadena once again. Not as champions, just conference rivals visiting UCLA’s home stadium. At least for now.

UCLA’s long-term home remains the subject of a legal dispute with Pasadena and the Rose Bowl Operating Co. over its lease and a potential move to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. The Bruins have committed to the Rose Bowl for 2026, but their future there is unsettled.

A UCLA departure would not necessarily end the Rose Bowl’s playoff role. The game is a College Football Playoff quarterfinal for the foreseeable future, but with no guaranteed Big Ten berth.

Even if Michigan State reaches the playoff quarterfinals someday, Pasadena is no sure thing. Bowl assignments depend on the bracket and the top seeds’ site selections. It makes me wonder whether this week’s visit could be the Spartans’ last in my lifetime.

If this is Michigan State’s last Rose Bowl visit for a while, perhaps the Spartans can make it memorable. Pasadena is special, and maybe it has saved a little magic for the underdogs. After all, Michigan State is 4-1 all-time in this venerable venue, including two wins over the Bruins.

Maybe a road upset in the most famous college football stadium in the known universe will awaken a new era of Spartan football under Pat Fitzgerald. Maybe 10 years from now, fans will remember this trip to Pasadena as the spark that turned things around.

Maybe.

At least a boy can dream.

Will Michigan State Spring an Upset in Pasadena?

Michigan State and UCLA have played each other only seven times previously.

The Spartans defeated the Bruins in their first two Rose Bowl appearances, following the 1953 and 1955 seasons. Michigan State also won the schools’ third meeting, a regular-season game in East Lansing in 1965.

The teams met again in the Rose Bowl after the 1965 season, but UCLA upset the heavily favored No. 1 Spartans, handing them their only loss.

UCLA then swept a home-and-home series in 1973 and 1974. The teams did not meet again for 51 years, until last year’s game at Spartan Stadium. The Bruins arrived as 7.5-point underdogs but crushed the homecoming crowd’s dreams with a 38-13 win.

Many Spartan observers cite that loss as the turning point in coach Jonathan Smith’s tenure.

This time, the roles are reversed. UCLA is home, and the Bruins opened as 12.5-point favorites. The spread has since climbed to 14 points at many sportsbooks. Historically, that leaves Michigan State with just an 18% chance of an upset.

Will that dream of a magical upset come true?

Unfortunately, my computer has issued a wake-up call. It projects something resembling a rerun of last season’s nightmare. My official score prediction is UCLA 36, Michigan State 13.

That projection favors UCLA to cover and the over on current totals ranging from 44.5 to 47.5 points.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten’s Week 8 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and the projected margin from each computer.

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