At halftime Saturday, there was cause for concern in the stands and on the sideline at Spartan Stadium. Visiting Eastern Michigan had just marched 78 yards on 13 plays, mostly on the ground, to cut Michigan State’s lead to seven.

Despite that lead, Eastern Michigan had outgained Michigan State 162-143 and held the ball for 6 1/2 minutes longer. For the second time in two weeks, the Spartans were struggling to put away a Mid-American Conference opponent.

Entering the season, fans did not know what to expect from the first year of the Pat Fitzgerald era in East Lansing. Still and moving images available to the public during the offseason had been limited. The Week 1 performance was fine, but hardly inspiring. Seven quarters into a new era of Spartan football, doubt was creeping in, and the defense was the immediate concern.

“There was a lot of not very happy people on our defensive headphones and defensive staff when we went in at halftime,” Fitzgerald said.

There were plenty of unhappy people in the stands and in their living rooms, too.

But the MSU staff turned that anger into energy, fueling a dominant second-half performance. The Spartans outgained the Eagles 329-57 after halftime and outscored them 21-0.

It was the type of performance Spartan fans have awaited for at least a year. It was the first real sign that Michigan State’s program may be on the rise.

Yes, it was only one half against a lower-level MAC opponent. Still, the energy and execution with which the Spartans have responded after halftime in both games are noticeable.

The team’s entire vibe feels different. It also feels familiar. It feels like Spartan football again. Bumps along the road are inevitable, and one very likely awaits next week in South Bend.

I could be wrong, but the Spartans’ trajectory appears to be pointing up. Then again, I could be right.

Week 2 Betting Results

Now it is time to review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with the overview in Figure 1. For more on how to read it, see last week’s edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Week 2 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Fifteen teams overachieved in Week 2, including Mississippi State, Utah, Nebraska, Toledo, and Alabama. Seven teams notably underachieved but still won, including Washington, Texas Tech, and Ole Miss.

Nine favorites lost outright in Week 2. That total does not include Northern Illinois and Nevada, which lost to FCS opponents Illinois State and Montana State, respectively, because both FBS teams opened as underdogs. Overall this is slightly below that value of 10.8 that my computer predicted.

Table 1 summarizes those nine upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Week 2 upsets based on the opening line, compared with last week's upset projections.

The week’s biggest upset was Oklahoma State (+21.5) over Oregon, making the Ducks the second Big Ten team this season to lose as a favorite of more than 20 points. Other notable upsets included Duke over Illinois, Michigan over Oklahoma, and Texas over Ohio State.

My algorithm had an OK week, going 3-5 (37.5%). That brought its season record to 4-7 (36%), slightly below my 40% benchmark for upset picks.

FPI went 1-1 (50%) on upset picks, bringing its season record to 1-3 (25%). SP+ endured a miserable 0-6 week, dropping its season tally to 1-7 (12.5%).

Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread. 

Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 2 picks against the opening spread.

It was a tough week for the machines against the spread. They could have been right, but they were far more often wrong.

My computer was a miserable 3-12 (20%), although six misses came by fewer than four points. FPI was better at 4-5 (44%), while SP+ was also terrible at 4-12 (25%).

Across all 86 games, my algorithm went 36-50 (42%) ATS, FPI went 45-41 (52%), and SP+ went 34-52 (40%). My computer and SP+ are below .500 for the season, while FPI is barely above water.

Table 3 shows the Week 2 point-total results.

Table 3: Results of the recommended Week 2 point-total wagers

The point-total results were the week’s lone betting bright spot. My computer went 8-5 (61.5%), lifting its season record to 17-14 (55%).

My analysis of SP+ data did not generate any over/under bets this weekend, so that total remains at 5-2 (62.5%) on the year.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

After Week 2, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 4 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 5 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.

All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.

Want the full projections? Subscribe to Spartans Illustrated to see Michigan State’s updated bowl and playoff odds, projected spreads for every remaining game, the latest Big Ten title probabilities, and Dr. Green and White’s national outlook after Week 2.