I must admit it was a pretty relaxing weekend in the Dr. Green and White household. I enjoyed all of the Halloween festivities on a beautiful fall day and evening in the Midwest. I also gained an extra hour of sleep on Saturday night, and a giant bowl of leftover candy now sits on my kitchen counter.
That doesn’t even count the “dad tax” I plan to levy on my children once the statute of limitations runs out on those poorly hidden pillowcases of loot in their rooms. What can I say? When so inclined, I can really crush some candy.
Perhaps the best news of all is that we got a break from the ongoing stomachache that has been the Michigan State football season. We had sweet expectations back in early September, but the kids sure hit a sour patch over the past six weeks.
I hope the Spartans also got some rest this weekend without overindulging. We are going to need them much closer to full strength in a few days.
In the meantime, let’s check on the action from over the weekend while the rest of us were pounding donuts and cider, handing out candy, or exchanging words with friends.
Week 9 Betting Results
Let’s review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read it, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds.
Figure 1: Week 9 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.
Eleven teams significantly overachieved this week, including Duke, Wake Forest, Iowa, Memphis, Utah, and Ole Miss.
For the first time since Week 4, a team underachieved, winning the game but missing the spread by more than 14 points. That team was UNLV.
There were 13 upsets in Week 9, the first time since Week 4 that the total fell short of the week’s expected number (15.1).
Table 1 summarizes those 13 upsets and compares them with last week’s picks.
Table 1: Week 9 upsets based on the opening spread, compared with last week’s upset projections.
The week’s biggest upsets were Troy (+18) over James Madison, Washington (+10.5) over Nebraska, Iowa State (+9.5) over Oklahoma State, Syracuse (+9.5) over SMU, Clemson (+9.5) over Florida State, USC (+6.5) over Ohio State, and South Carolina (+3.5) over Oklahoma.
My algorithm had a sour week, going just 1-6 (14%) on upset picks and dropping its year-to-date record to 32-49 (39.5%).
FPI went 0-2 (0%), bringing its season tally to 15-19 (44%). SP+ finished 1-1 (50%) for an overall record of 18-19 (49%).
Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread.
Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 9 picks against the opening spread.
There were only two picks on the board this week. FPI was correct and SP+ was incorrect.
For the season, my algorithm remains at 21-18 (54%) on curated picks. My recommended FPI picks are even at 26-26 (50%), and my SP+ selections are in a sweet spot at 26-20 (56.5%).
Across the full schedule, my machine did well, going 31-25 (55%) and pushing its year-to-date total to 306-316 (49%). FPI finished 26-30 (46%) for the week and is 304-318 (49%) overall. SP+ went 30-26 (54%), lifting its season record to 325-297 (52%).
Table 3 shows the Week 9 point-total results.
Table 3: Results of the recommended Week 9 point-total wagers.
My analysis of SP+ data provided a single pick this week, which was correct. My computer is holding steady at 29-23 (56%) on curated point-total bets, and SP+ improved to 8-4 (67%).
My computer got tricked on the full schedule, going 19-37 (34%) on point-total picks this week, while SP+ finished 24-32 (43%). Year to date, my computer is 257-295 (47%) across all games, and SP+ is slightly better at 267-285 (48%).
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
After Week 9, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 4 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 5 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.
All rankings next to team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not to either national poll.
Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule, and season odds after Week 9
Table 5: Updated Big Ten win-distribution matrix after Week 9.
The big news of the week was No. 35 USC’s upset win over No. 8 Ohio State in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, No. 9 Indiana narrowly avoided a crash, escaping No. 65 Minnesota’s upset bid in overtime. No. 4 UCLA also blanked No. 103 Nevada in non-conference play.
As things stand, UCLA is alone in first place in Big Ten play. My simulation gives the Bruins an 86% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game and a 46% chance to win the conference.
Indiana and Ohio State are tied for second place with one conference loss each. Ohio State owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Hoosiers, but the Buckeyes have a tougher remaining schedule. As a result, my simulation gives Indiana slightly sweeter odds than Ohio State to both make the Big Ten Championship Game (53% to 45%) and win it (25% to 23%).
The team with the next-best odds to sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game is No. 25 Oregon at just 4.6%. That chance stems from the Ducks’ come-from-behind win over No. 15 Northwestern, which leaves both teams at 3-2 in conference play. I guess the birds finally got angry enough to beat a ranked team.
No. 14 Iowa also scored a major victory, shutting out No. 32 Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes and Badgers are now both 3-2 in Big Ten play. I thought the Badgers could be a dark horse Big Ten contender, but it appears there was an impostor among us.
In other conference action, No. 46 Illinois held on at No. 82 Maryland, and No. 52 Washington came from behind to beat No. 23 Nebraska. No. 29 Penn State handled No. 47 Purdue, and No. 51 Michigan survived a road trip to No. 94 Rutgers.
UCLA (79%), Indiana (62.5%), and Ohio State (58%) are all in solid shape to earn a playoff bid. My latest College Football Playoff projection has UCLA as the No. 5 seed, Ohio State as the No. 7 seed, and Indiana as the No. 9 seed.
Iowa (13%), Northwestern (13%), USC (9%), and Oregon (7%) are all playoff long shots, and all but the Ducks are now bowl eligible.
Six other Big Ten teams outside of Oregon are just one win away from that six-win milestone and have solid odds to become bowl eligible: Wisconsin (98.5% chance to get to six wins), Nebraska (93%), Michigan (76%), Washington (76%), Illinois (72%), and Minnesota (64%).
Penn State is only 4-4, but the Nittany Lions’ remaining schedule gives them a 91% chance to reach six wins.
The remaining four Big Ten teams are all long shots to reach the postseason. Purdue has the best odds at 15%, followed by Michigan State (8%), Maryland (1.6%), and Rutgers (0.6%).
Updated Season Prospects for the Spartans
The bye week did not change much for the Spartans’ prospects, but if anything, the arrow points slightly down.
Michigan State’s expected win total sits at 3.90. My simulation gives the Green and White just an 8.2% chance to win out and qualify for a bowl game.
Figure 2 shows my computer’s updated point-spread projections and win probabilities for the Spartans’ four remaining games, alongside the preseason projections and last week’s values.
Figure 2: Updated win probabilities and spread projections for the Spartans’ remaining games after Week 9 of the 2026 season, based on a 50,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation. Preseason projections and last week’s values are shown for comparison.
The projections did not change much from last week, with the exception of the line for Nov. 14, when Washington comes to town. That game now projects as essentially a toss-up, with my model suggesting Michigan State (-1) will be slightly favored.
I am still predicting that the Spartans will be favored on the road at Rutgers (+3.5) and an underdog at home against Oregon (-5.5).
My computer also projects a spread of only four points for next week’s game against Michigan. Even so, the line currently has the Wolverines favored by 12.5 points, which means the odds of a Spartan victory are lower than shown above.
But we will discuss the Wolverines in detail later this week.
National Overview
Let’s take a quick spin around the country, starting with my updated College Football Playoff projections in Table 6. The table shows current and projected rankings and records for each team.
Table 6: Projected final College Football Playoff rankings, including current and projected power rankings and strength of resume, assuming every projected favorite wins its remaining games.
No. 1 LSU was idle this weekend and sits at 6-2, but my computer expects big things from the Tigers down the stretch. They own the No. 1 projected strength-of-resume metric, which could propel them to the top seed in the College Football Playoff.
I have my doubts, however, as LSU currently has only the fourth-best odds to reach the SEC Championship Game at 29%. No. 7 Georgia has the best odds to reach the title game (50%), thanks in part to this weekend’s decisive win over No. 31 Florida in the annual border war Clash of Clans.
No. 6 Ole Miss also saw its odds to play in the SEC Championship Game improve to 42% after the Rebels crushed No. 37 Auburn. No. 17 Kentucky sat out the weekend, and the Wildcats hold the third-best odds to reach the SEC Championship Game at 39%.
All four of the SEC teams mentioned above are currently on track to make the College Football Playoff. Ole Miss is slated to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed. Kentucky projects as the No. 6 seed, and Georgia is slotted as the No. 10 seed.
No. 3 Texas is the fifth and final SEC team in my projected field as the No. 8 seed. The Longhorns have only a 10% chance to make the conference title game but did make short work of No. 61 Mississippi State this weekend.
No. 2 Notre Dame still projects as the No. 2 seed in the playoffs after a somewhat stale win over No. 89 Navy.
No. 5 Miami also failed to cover this weekend, but the Hurricanes still beat No. 16 North Carolina. My computer gives Miami a 99% chance to make the ACC Championship Game and a 56.5% chance to win the league. Miami projects as the No. 3 seed in the final College Football Playoff bracket.
It looks increasingly likely that Miami will face No. 11 Wake Forest in the ACC Championship Game. Wake Forest hammered Virginia and now has a 70% chance to make the title game and a 32% chance to win it. The Demon Deacons also currently project as the last team left out of the playoffs.
Wake got a boost from No. 41 SMU’s upset loss to No. 57 Syracuse, which sliced the Mustangs’ odds to reach the ACC title game down to just 12%. It appears the Orange channeled their inner Fruit Ninjas for the occasion.
In the Big 12, No. 12 Utah dispatched Cincinnati to remain undefeated and the favorite to win the conference, with current odds of 42%.
No. 19 BYU did not cover against No. 70 Arizona State, but the Cougars did win to hold on to the No. 2 spot on my Big 12 leaderboard (19% conference odds). No. 26 Texas Tech held off visiting No. 20 Arizona and moved back into third place with a 14% chance to win the Big 12.
That said, my computer projects only the eventual Big 12 champion, in this case Utah, to claim a spot in the playoff bracket as the No. 11 seed. BYU and Texas Tech are both in the “last four out” category, along with Wake Forest and No. 10 Alabama.
Among the Group of Six, Table 7 shows the teams with the best odds to earn an automatic College Football Playoff berth.
Table 7: Group of Six leaderboard after Week 9.
No. 34 Boise State continues to hold a commanding lead (48.5% to make the playoffs) despite a surprisingly close call at home against No. 73 Texas State.
The primary challenger is Sun Belt favorite No. 42 Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs won on the road at No. 98 South Alabama and are closing in on the Sun Belt West Division title (93% odds).
No. 75 UTSA from the American Conference has moved into third place on the Group of Six leaderboard with a 10.5% chance to reach the playoffs. The Roadrunners are 7-1 with a lone loss at Texas.
However, my computer still gives No. 58 North Texas (37.5%) and No. 56 Memphis (23.4%) a better shot at winning the league than UTSA (23.3%).
Mountain West leader No. 50 New Mexico has just under a 10% chance to make the playoffs after a closer-than-expected win at No. 115 San Jose State.
Finally, don’t look now, but No. 40 Liberty of Conference USA is 7-1 and projected to run the table. I currently give the Flames a 70% chance to win the conference, which would put them into the discussion.
Against all odds, we’ve cleared the final level of this week’s slate. I am off to raid my kids’ Halloween stash while they are at school. Stay tuned to Spartans Illustrated for more analysis and the next installment of Bad Betting Advice.
