The last six weeks of football have likely made many Michigan State fans want to scream. I have good news, Spartan fans. I can guarantee, with 100% certainty, that Michigan State will not lose a football game this weekend. Consider it the rare horror movie with no body count.
That’s right, the bye week is upon us, and who really wanted to watch or attend a football game on Halloween anyway? The schedule makers did us all a favor.
Instead of worrying about how members of the Spartan linebacker room, cornerback room, quarterback room, or running back room are dropping like scantily clad teens in a slasher film, carve a pumpkin, an activity where the only goal is keeping all 10 fingers.
Do you like scary movies? Dial one up on Netflix. Have some cider and doughnuts. Go trick-or-treating with your kids and sneak a full-size Snickers bar from the best house in the neighborhood when no one is watching. Ask your kids which house. They will know.
Better yet, don’t think about Spartan football at all. If you must, scream into a pillow. Nobody will notice or judge, and at least the pillow can absorb a hit without missing the rest of the season.
But no matter how you spend your Saturday, if an unknown number calls your phone, it is best not to answer. It could be a serial killer. Or worse, a politician.
Even though Michigan State has the week off, there is plenty of other action to discuss and a bevy of potentially terrifying bets to place. Grab your popcorn, don’t go to the basement alone, and let’s jump right in.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten’s Week 9 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and the projected margins from each computer.
The color scheme identifies which computers are picking each team to cover. FPI is red, SP+ is blue, and my model is yellow. When two systems agree, the cell is purple, orange, or green. A black cell indicates a unanimous pick.
Upset picks appear in italics, while recommended picks against the spread appear in bold.
Table 1: Big Ten Week 9 games with my algorithm’s projected scores. Cell colors identify each model’s pick against the spread. Upset picks are italicized, and recommended picks against the spread are bold.
Michigan State is the only Big Ten team off this week, and UCLA (-23.5) is a huge home favorite against Nevada in nonconference play.
That leaves eight Big Ten conference games, headlined by Ohio State (-6.5) traveling to Los Angeles to face USC. My analysis still has the Buckeyes with the best odds to win the conference, but they have the most difficult schedule of the current contenders.
The line is much tighter than expected, and all three computers have Ohio State winning by double digits and easily covering. An upset loss would blow the conference race wide open, and the screams would echo across Columbus.
Indiana would benefit from an Ohio State loss. The Hoosiers (-20.5) face a much lighter challenge at home this weekend against Minnesota, and all three computers also like Indiana to cover.
Two other dark-horse Big Ten contenders are walking into unfamiliar homes at the end of the block. That does not always end well.
Northwestern is one of four Big Ten teams with a single conference loss. The Wildcats (+4) are narrow underdogs on the road at Oregon. Notably, FPI and SP+ both foresee the Ducks covering that spread. My computer is predicting an upset win by Northwestern.
Wisconsin also has only one conference loss and, like the Wildcats, the Badgers (+3.5) are slight road underdogs against Iowa. SP+ likes Iowa to cover, while FPI favors Wisconsin against the spread. My model goes further and expects Wisconsin to pull the upset over the children of the corn.
The remaining four Big Ten games will mostly affect nonplayoff bowl positioning.
Nebraska (-10.5) will secure a bowl bid with its sixth win if the Cornhuskers can take care of Washington at home. The Huskies’ fading postseason hopes will dim even further with a loss. My computer and FPI have Nebraska covering.
Penn State, at 3-4, has the most work to do to reach the postseason, but the Nittany Lions also have the easiest remaining schedule in the conference. While an upset loss at home to Purdue (+7.5) would be a shocker, the Lions are still projected to be heavy favorites in the final four games on their schedule.
Illinois (-3) would be just one win away from bowl eligibility with a victory at Maryland. The computers all expect the Fighting Illini to win and cover.
Michigan (-13.5) could also move within one win of bowl eligibility with a road victory at Rutgers. FPI and SP+ have Michigan barely covering, while my machine has the Wolverines winning by less than a touchdown.
An upset loss by Michigan would create a scary situation in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines would need to win two of their final four games to qualify for a bowl. They still have road games at Oregon and Ohio State, a home game against UCLA, and a home rivalry game against Michigan State.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 summarizes the other notable Week 9 action across college football in the same format as Table 1.
Table 2: Other notable Week 9 games with my algorithm’s projected scores. Cell colors identify each model’s pick against the spread. Upset picks are italicized, and recommended picks against the spread are bold.
The SEC should be quiet, as Alabama, Kentucky, LSU, and Tennessee are all off this week. I suspect that their athletic directors will spend Saturday night going door to door, asking major donors for king-size NIL contributions.
Of the teams currently in the top eight of my SEC leaderboard, Texas (-19.5) should have a fairly easy time at home against Mississippi State, and Ole Miss (-13) should also get past Auburn.
That leaves the marquee SEC game of the week: Georgia (-9.5) vs. Florida, held this year in Atlanta and otherwise known as the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,” although the schools were supposed to stop using that name in 2006.
This year it takes place on Halloween. What could possibly go wrong?
Overall, my computer likes Texas, Ole Miss, and Florida to cover, while FPI and SP+ are both taking the other side of all three contests.
In Big 12 action, BYU (-14.5) is expected to bounce back against Arizona State after last weekend’s overtime loss at UCF. The computers all like the Cougars to cover.
Conference favorite Utah (-6.5) is also expected to win and cover, but the Utes face a stiffer test on the road at Cincinnati. The Bearcats showed last week against Texas Tech that they can play the villain.
Speaking of the Red Raiders, they hope to rebound this week in the most intriguing game on the Big 12 schedule: Arizona at Texas Tech (-5.5). The Wildcats are surging, having won five straight since a Week 2 loss at BYU.
FPI and SP+ are split on which team will cover, but my computer sees a nightmare scenario for Texas Tech: an upset win by Arizona.
In the ACC, Miami (-16.5) travels to North Carolina for the Hurricanes’ final conference road game and probably their last serious test in league play. FPI and SP+ pick Miami to cover, while my computer favors the Tar Heels.
Wake Forest (-7) appears to be the most likely opponent for Miami in the ACC Championship Game, but the Demon Deacons must first get past Virginia. The computers all favor Wake Forest to cover.
I am also now keeping an eye on SMU (-9.5), which travels to Syracuse this week. The Mustangs visit Wake Forest on Nov. 14, and the winner of that contest will very likely face Miami for the ACC title.
In Group of Six action, the race for the final College Football Playoff spot is increasingly Boise State’s to lose. This week, the Broncos (-11.5) host Texas State, and all three computers pick Boise State to cover.
The other two Group of Six games to circle are new Sun Belt favorite Louisiana Tech (-4) at South Alabama and Mountain West contender New Mexico (-14.5) at San Jose State. Both favorites must win on the road to stay in the race for a playoff spot.
Also worth watching are James Madison, an 18-point favorite over Troy, and Oregon State, a 7-point road favorite at Fresno State.
Picks of the Week
The previous sections identified several potential upsets and the best bets against the spread. Figure 1 compares my computer’s Week 9 projections with the opening Las Vegas lines.
Figure 1: My algorithm’s projected margins of victory compared with the opening Las Vegas lines for Week 9.
A brief explanation of how to read this figure appears in the Week 1 edition of Bad Betting Advice.
Table 3 summarizes this week’s upset picks. Consider them the potential jump scares of the slate.
Table 3: Upset picks for Week 9.
The most notable picks on the board this week are Arizona (+5.5) over Texas Tech, Northwestern (+4) over Oregon, and Wisconsin (+3.5) over Iowa, all from my computer, and Baylor (+2.5) over UCF from SP+. Also note that Kennesaw State did, in fact, upset Middle Tennessee on Wednesday night but Western Kentucky did not upset Delaware on Tuesday despite the support from all three compuers.
A simulation of the full Week 9 slate suggests that 15.1 ± 3.2 upsets is the most likely outcome, so expect plenty of screaming from bettors, though not as much gore as in the last four weeks.
Games in Figure 1 that fall outside either pair of dashed diagonal lines qualify as suggested picks against the spread. Table 4 lists those selections alongside comparable picks from my analysis of FPI and SP+.
Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 9, listed by confidence score.
My computer has gone silent on bets against the spread this week, and FPI and SP+ each have just one pick that meets the criteria.
FPI backs Louisville (-21) to cover against Stanford, while SP+ likes North Dakota State (-26.5) to cover against UTEP.
My computer is also mum on point totals this week, as if someone cut the phone line. The only pick on the board comes from my analysis of SP+ data, which likes Colorado State and Utah State to combine for fewer than 63.5 points.
That is all my advice for this week. I hope you find this analysis, and whatever Halloween adventures await you, a scream. Enjoy the games, and stay tuned for the sequel early next week in Against All Odds.
