Against All Odds, Week 7: Horseshoes and Hand Grenades

Another week, another heartbreaking loss at Spartan Stadium. The path was a little different, but the result was all too familiar.

A week ago, Michigan State stumbled out of the gate against Illinois. The Spartans roared back in the second half to force overtime, only to fall one play short of victory.

This week, against a stronger Northwestern team, the Spartans stood toe-to-toe with their ranked opponent throughout the game, even holding an 8-point lead deep into the fourth quarter.

The Wildcats nearly gift-wrapped a win for the Spartans with a baffling decision to fake a punt deep in their own territory with 3:29 left in a tie game.

But a blocked field goal and a 60-second drive orchestrated by former Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles sealed the Spartans' fate.

Michigan State was again “this close” to a statement victory, yet so far away. As the old saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. The Spartans have been anything but lucky, and another once-promising season feels blown to smithereens as the Green and White fall to 2-5.

Still, this loss felt different. I fully expected a blowout. Keeping the margin under 10 points seemed like the only reasonable goal.

Despite entering with a four-game losing streak, the Spartans played with energy and grit. They held their own against a ranked team and looked like they belonged. They fought. They competed. They almost won. Almost.

The problem is that near misses have become all too familiar. “Close, but no cigar” could have been the mantra of the Jonathan Smith era.

This year, the coach and the attitude have changed, but the Spartans are still searching for a way to turn near misses into wins. The Spartans appear headed for their fifth consecutive losing season. That has happened only once before in 129 seasons of Michigan State football, from 1979 to 1983.

Where do we go from here? Some would point to recent Michigan State availability reports that rival an average CVS receipt in length. They would also note that Pat Fitzgerald had to rebuild the roster quickly through the transfer portal with limited NIL funding.

That camp would cite the fight shown in the last two losses and argue that the Spartans' luck should turn, especially once Fitzgerald establishes a recruiting foundation under a more stable athletic department.

Others are ready to blow everything up. They point to Fitzgerald's weak finish at Northwestern, his time away from the game, and other first-year coaches whose teams are already ranked and competing atop their leagues.

As for me, I am not sure what to think. Waiting for the horseshoe to turn right-side up is painful, but blowing up the program offers no guarantee of better luck. I still think giving Fitzgerald time to rebuild is the best course. But I understand the frustration and criticism.

After all, close is just another way of saying not good enough, at least for now.

Week 7 Betting Results

Let’s review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read it, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Week 7 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Eleven teams overachieved in Week 7, including Wake Forest, Ole Miss, LSU, James Madison, Texas Tech, and Toledo.

For the third straight week, every significant underachiever lost outright.

After a quiet start to the season, each of the last three weeks has produced 19 or 20 upsets relative to the opening spread.

Table 1 summarizes the 20 upsets and compares them with last week’s picks.

Table 1: Week 7 upsets based on the opening spread, compared with last week’s upset projections.

The week’s biggest upsets were Charlotte (+23.5) over Temple, Auburn (+18.5) over Georgia, BYU (+12.5) over Notre Dame, Florida (+9.5) over Texas, Tulane (+7) over Memphis, Boston College (+7) over Pittsburgh, Kentucky (+6.5) over Oklahoma, Tennessee (+6.5) over Alabama, TCU (+6.5) over Baylor, and North Carolina (+3) over Duke.

My algorithm went 3-6 (33%) on upset picks, bringing its year-to-date record to 27-39 (41%).

FPI went 1-2 (33%), bringing its season tally to 13-16 (45%). SP+ finished 2-1 (67%) for an overall record of 12-16 (43%).

Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 7 picks against the opening spread.

For the first time ever, all three computers were perfect on the highlighted picks. My machine went 1-0, while FPI and SP+ each finished 3-0. For once, every horseshoe found its mark.

For the year, my algorithm is 21-18 (54%) on curated picks. My recommended FPI picks are 25-26 (49%), and my SP+ selections are 26-18 (59%).

Across the full schedule, my machine went 27-35 (44%) this week and is 250-260 (49%) overall. FPI finished 28-34 (45%) for the week and is 257-253 (50.4%) overall. SP+ went 30-32 (48%), bringing its tally to 269-241 (53%).

Table 3 shows the Week 7 point-total results.

Table 3: Results of the recommended Week 7 point-total wagers.

My computer split its two picks (1-1, 50%), bringing its curated record to 29-23 (56%). SP+ remains 7-4 (64%) on a very small sample size.

My computer went 27-32 (46%) on the full schedule of point-total picks this week, while SP+ finished 29-30 (49%). Year to date, my computer is 213-227 (48%) across all games, and SP+ is slightly better at 215-225 (49%).

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

After Week 7, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 4 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 5 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.

The near misses are piling up. Can the Spartans find enough lucky bounces to salvage a bowl berth? Subscribe to Spartans Illustrated for Dr. Green and White’s updated Big Ten odds, game-by-game projections for Michigan State’s five remaining contests, and a look at the wreckage Week 7’s upsets left in the College Football Playoff race.